Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets Preview & Predictions (1/4): Feeling Frisky with Trubisky?
Written by: Danny Burke
Published: Sat Jan 03, 2026, 6:49 pm ET
Read Time: 6 minutes
nfl
When sportsbooks first released this game, the Bills were listed as high as 11-point favorites, with the total opening at a low 40.
Although Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott has said Josh Allen is good to go, the expectation is that he'll take at least one snap to extend his starting streak to 122 games – the second-longest in NFL history – before exiting the game. Last season in Week 18, Allen preserved the streak by playing just one snap and sitting the rest of the contest, so the assumption is Buffalo follows a similar approach here.
That would leave Mitch Trubisky under center for the majority of the matchup against Brady Cook and the New York Jets.
As a result, the spread has moved, with Buffalo now laying between -7.5 and -8, while the total has dipped to a consensus 37.5.
The Jets have nothing to play for but pride, while the Bills have playoff positioning up for grabs. What should we expect when these AFC East rivals meet on Sunday? I'll break it down below in my Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets preview and predictions.
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Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets Preview & Predictions
How much action will we see from Josh Allen in NFL Week 18?
Bills vs Jets Preview
Outside of Buffalo likely resting Josh Allen for most of this game, they'll also be without defensive tackle DaQuan Jones and safety Jordan Poyer.
Tight end Dalton Kincaid, defensive end Joey Bosa, and defensive tackle Deone Walker are all listed as questionable.
There is a chance James Cook plays a meaningful portion of this game as he chases the rushing title. Cook has 1,606 rushing yards, leading Jonathan Taylor (1,559) by just 47 yards. It wouldn't be surprising if Buffalo lets Cook build a comfortable cushion before pulling him from the game.
James Cook is 1 WEEK AWAY from the rushing title.
The colts game will end before the Bills starts we will know how much yards he needs.
He can become the first bills player since 1976 to win the rushing title. pic.twitter.com/ufISL8Qr2n
— BillsOnReal (@BillsOnReal) January 1, 2026
We also can't ignore the significance of this being the final game at this stadium before the Bills move across the street to the new Highmark Stadium next season.
But just how important is a win for Buffalo?
Right now, the Houston Texans hold the No. 5 seed in the AFC, which would set up a first-round matchup against either the Steelers or Ravens. Houston has a favorable matchup on Sunday at home against the Colts, so it's likely they hold onto that spot.
The Los Angeles Chargers currently sit in the No. 6 seed, but they're expected to rest Justin Herbert and several other starters. They're also double-digit road underdogs against the Broncos, who are still fighting for the No. 1 seed, making a Chargers loss likely.
That leaves Buffalo in the No. 7 spot. If the Bills beat the Jets and the Chargers lose, Buffalo would move up to the sixth seed and likely face Jacksonville on the road. However, if Buffalo loses, they could draw a third matchup against division rival New England in the first round. Many Bills fans would welcome another meeting with Drake Maye and the Patriots, and it's possible the coaching staff feels the same way.
So the question becomes: does Buffalo push for the win and let the chips fall where they may, or do they take their chances with a loss and a familiar postseason opponent?
Without being inside the building, it's tough to know – which is exactly what makes this game so difficult to handicap.
What we can evaluate is what to expect from the Jets.
Since Brady Cook took over in Week 14, New York has gone 0–4, losing by an average margin of 26.8 points per game. The Jets haven't scored more than 20 points during that stretch.
Cook has completed just 58.8% of his passes for 679 yards, with one touchdown and seven interceptions.
To make matters worse, the Jets will be without their best offensive weapon in Breece Hall. Buffalo owns one of the bottom-two run defenses in the NFL, and Hall would've been the lone realistic path for this Jets offense to stay competitive on Sunday.
On the flip side, even with Mitch Trubisky under center, the Bills should still be able to move the ball. Trubisky is a competent backup, and he'll be facing one of the league's worst defenses.
Aaron Glenn's Jets rank 29th in EPA per play and 16th in success rate overall. Their biggest issues come in the secondary, where they sit 31st in dropback EPA allowed.
Bills vs Jets Predictions
It's not just Breece Hall who will be out for the Jets – several other starters will be missing as well. But let's be honest: even if New York were closer to full strength, they'd still be at a massive disadvantage. That remains true even with Mitch Trubisky under center for Buffalo.
The Jets are a mess right now. As much as they'd like to end the season on a high note by knocking off a division rival and making a case for Aaron Glenn to remain head coach, the odds of that happening feel unrealistic.
This game ultimately comes down to how hard the Bills want to compete. I don't expect Buffalo to actively tank in an effort to draw the Patriots, but I also don't see them keeping their foot on the gas for four full quarters.
Because of that, I don't have strong conviction on either the spread or the total. One option worth considering would be teasing the Bills down to -1.5 on a standard six-point teaser and pairing them with another leg you like.
Outside of that, James Cook props would be intriguing to explore, but most books haven't posted them yet. That's the challenge with many Week 18 matchups – the unknowns. There's no need to force a bet in this game unless you're confident there's a real edge to be had.
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Danny Burke is a betting analyst with a decade of sports media experience. He got his start at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, sharing picks on the local ESPN affiliate. After college, he hosted shows for VSiN in Las Vegas before returning to Chicago to launch 'Rush Hour', the first daily sports betting show from an Illinois casino. He also co-hosted 'Props and Locks' on Fox32’s Bears pregame show and ran 'Bet On, Chicago' on WLS-AM 890.
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