Bills vs. Chiefs Prediction and Best Bets

Matt Wiesenfeld

After meeting in the AFC Championship Game last season, the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs were expected to be the top two teams in the AFC again this season.

This time around, only one of them will get a shot at the AFC title, as they will face off in a Divisional Round matchup in Kansas City on Sunday.

Both teams were dominant in wins on Super Wild Card Weekend. Buffalo controlled the game from start to finish against New England, and Kansas City made quick work of Pittsburgh. This is definitely a game that everyone was hoping we would get at some point, though it is perhaps a week early.

This will be the second Bills-Chiefs matchup of the season. In the first, Buffalo put Kansas City on notice with a 38-20 win at Arrowhead Stadium in Week 4. This shapes up as the best game of this weekend’s four NFL playoff games. Will it live up to its billing?

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Matchup Info and Betting Odds

Matchup Info

  • Game Matchup: Buffalo Bills (11-6, 1st in AFC East, #3 seed in AFC) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (12-5, 1st in AFC West, #2 seed in AFC)
  • Venue & Location: Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Missouri)
  • Date: Sunday, January 23, 2022
  • Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS

Updated Betting Odds (as of Sunday, January 23, at 2:25 p.m. ET)

  • Spread: Buffalo Bills +1.5 (-110), Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 (-110)
  • Total: OVER 54.5 (-110), UNDER 54.5 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Buffalo Bills +105, Kansas City Cheifs -125

Odds are via BetMGM.

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Outlook

Buffalo could not have looked better than they did in dispatching New England last week. I was pretty confident that they could make things very difficult for rookie QB Mac Jones, but their own offensive proficiency, against what was supposed to be a good Patriots defense was impressive.

QB Josh Allen may have more clunkers than guys like Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady, but he is undoubtedly one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.

It was a slightly different script, but the Chiefs looked very strong in eliminating the Steelers on Sunday night. It would have been nice to see Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger end his career on a better note, but the Chiefs look to be clicking heading into this rematch.

QB Patrick Mahomes’s day might have been celebrated even more if Allen hadn’t shone so bright in beating the Pats the night before. Mahomes and Allen are the two best QBs in the AFC and we get to see them match up in the playoffs for the second straight year. This should be a fun one.

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Prediction and Best Bet

Buffalo Bills 34, Kansas City Chiefs 31 (Buffalo Bills +1.5 & OVER 53.5)

I am in agreement that whoever wins this game should be considered the AFC Championship Game favorite. When they met for the AFC title last year, Kansas City’s experience won out over Buffalo. But that will not be the case in this rematch.

The game is once again in Kansas City and that is definitely an advantage for the Chiefs. But I like the Buffalo side to close the gap and win the game.

The Chiefs are seeking a fourth straight AFC title game appearance for a reason, but the Bills now know what it takes to win at Arrowhead Stadium. This Bills-Chiefs prediction is all about believing in the Bills right now. I think Allen can outplay Patrick Mahomes and the Bills can have some success in the running game to help them win a high-scoring game.

Buffalo has the better defense though it is likely that neither defense will slow down the other all that much. Look for there to be more big plays than punts on either side.

This one is going to be fascinating from an in-game perspective too. Whichever team scores first is going to immediately become the favorite and create some big-time value on the other side. As the last game of the weekend the pre-game market could be affected by folks chasing losses too.

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