Bills vs. Jaguars | NFL Wild Card Weekend: Who’s Got More Motion?
Written by: Varun Sharma
Last Update: Sat Jan 10, 2026, 5:10 am ET
Read Time: 6 minutes
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The Jaguars host Josh Allen and the Bills for Wild Card Round and this game's looking like it could be one of the funnest of the entire weekend. Two high powered offenses, two great QBs and a ton of big time players on both sides of the ball. Let's jump right into it.
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Game Information
Matchup Information
- Location: EverBank Stadium; Jacksonville, Florida
- Date: Sunday, January 11th, 2026
- Kickoff: 1:00 PM EST
Quarterback Matchup
- Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen (2025: 12-5| 215.8 YPG | 25 TD | 10 INT)
- Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence (2025: 13-4| 235.7 YPG | 29 TD | 12 INT)
Betting Odds
Odds via Lucky Rebel, an industry leader in the sports betting world.
Analysis & Breakdown
Goodbye, Highmark
The Bills enter the playoffs for the fist time in five years without a home playoff game to start their postseason run. The Patriots won the division for the first time since 2019 and it's caused Buffalo to go on the road to face Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Buffalo's offense ranked 4th in points, 3rd in redzone efficiency, 1st in rush yards, 14th in pass yards and 3rd in yards per play. Josh Allen's been at the helm of one of the most potent offenses in the NFL and he's done it with next to no reliable receivers. Khalil Shakir was the team's leading receiver with 719 receiving yards and Dalton Kincaid came in second with 571 receiving yards. Kincaid only played 12 games.
Despite the ugly receiving core, Allen's averaging 215.8 pass yards per game, completing 69.3% of his passes and he's thrown 25 touchdowns to 10 interceptions. Allen also lead's all QBs with 14 rushing touchdowns, averaging 34.1 rush yards per game and 5.2 yards per carry.
Defensively, the Bills have been mid-tier. The team ranks 12th in points allowed, 1st in pass yards allowed but 28th in rush yards allowed. The defense has had almost no success stopping the run, allowing opponents to average 5.1 yards per carry (30th) and 136.2 rush yards per game.
The interior of this Bills defensive line has been vulnerable all year and a big reason why is because their best interior run defender, Ed Oliver's on the shelf. He played just three games for Buffalo this year and without him the team's been repeatedly gashed up the middle. The Bills were graded as the 27th best run defense this year and graded as the 31st best tackling team.
DUUUUUVAAAAAAAL
Year one under Liam Coen, the Jaguars make the playoffs, win the division and come within a game of the 1-seed. Pretty good year for the rookie Head Coach and I don't think he's got any plans on this run ending anytime soon. The Jaguars have been great on both sides of the ball. The offense ranks 6th in points, 10th in redzone efficiency, 12th in pass yards and their defense has been just as good.
The Jaguars rank 8th in points allowed, 7th in opponent yards per play, 2nd in forced turnovers and 1st in opponent rush yards per play. The team ranks 21st in pass yards allowed, but a ton of that's due to their opponent's passing at high volume as they play from behind. The team's forced 31 total takeaways and the defense ranks 4th in coverage grade this year.
Trevor Lawrence has had one of his best years to date and was even getting a little bit of MVP hype as the season finished. Lawrence finished 6th in total pass yards, 5th in passing touchdowns, but 30th in completion rate. The team bolstered it's receiving room at the trade deadline with the addition of Jakobi Meyers and he's had an immediate impact for this offense.
Outside of Meyers and Brian Thomas Jr., the emergence of Parker Washington has been so much fun to watch. Washington's seen 29 targets in his last three games, reeling in 19 for 347 total receiving yards and 2 touchdowns. The offense looks great and with this game coming on their home field, I've got high hopes for the Jaguars.
Sunday's Best Bets
Travis Etienne Jr. o64.5 Rush Yards (-110) | Lucky Rebel
With all the weapons the Jaguars have, I'm turning to Travis Etienne. The Bills rush defense is ranked 28th in the league, allowing 136.2 rush yards per game and 5.1 yards per carry (30th).
This will be Liam Coen's first playoff game as a head coach and I think the best way to approach this game is to attack the Bills weakness. The Jaguars can maintain possession, keep Josh Allen off the field and help take control of this game early.
Etienne's averaging 65.1 rush yards per game this year and 4.3 yards per carry. The last time he played the Bills he finished with over 70 yards on the ground and this will be the back's second trip to the playoffs.
Etienne played in two playoff games, averaging 85.5 rush yards per game and 5.7 yards per carry. This week on their home field and up against one of the worst run defenses in the league; it just feels like the perfect spot to run it down their throats
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