Can the Patriots Win on the Road in Buffalo? NFL Expert Picks and Predictions (10/4)
Written by: BettingThePitch
Last Update: Sat Oct 03, 2026, 2:57 pm ET
Read Time: 6 minutes
nfl
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+7.0
-115
50
-105u
+270
Spread
Total
Moneyline
-7.0
-104
50
-108o
-325
This AFC East rivalry has certainly gone in a different direction over the last several years.
For what felt like forever, the Buffalo Bills were haunted by the Patriots and No. 12.
Then Josh Allen arrived, Tom Brady moved on, and Buffalo finally took control of the AFC East.
Now, some might say New England's new quarterback has shown flashes of traits similar to the Patriots legend. However, we haven't seen enough of those traits from Drake Maye to begin this season.
The Bills enter this matchup a perfect 3-0. Meanwhile, New England sits at 1-2 after getting embarrassed on the road in Jacksonville last week.
There's also some added history surrounding this matchup.
This will be the first meeting between these teams at the new Highmark Stadium. You know Buffalo would love to begin this new chapter of the rivalry with a win.
There's another storyline that makes this even more interesting.
During a recent broadcast, Brady saw an aerial shot showing the new stadium and the site of the old one. He then made a sly remark about Buffalo only beating him twice in that stadium.
You just know that comment made its way back to Josh Allen.
Now, he gets New England at home with an opportunity to make another statement in this rivalry.
Let's get into the matchup and my favorite bets.
Patriots vs Bills Betting Odds
Spread
- New England Patriots +7 (-116)
- Buffalo Bills -7 (-104)
Moneyline
- New England Patriots (+263)
- Buffalo Bills (-325)
Total
- Over 50 (-112)
- Under 50 (-108)
New England Patriots Team Information
Can Drake Maye finally figure it out in this Divisional matchup?
The Patriots enter this matchup missing some important pieces on both sides of the ball.
First, A.J. Brown will miss another game for New England.
I can't overstate how significant his absence has looked for this offense.
Interestingly, Buffalo ranks 31st in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers this season. Therefore, this would have been a matchup where Brown could have absolutely feasted.
Instead, New England will once again have to find production elsewhere.
The injury situation gets even worse on the defensive side.
News came out Friday that star cornerback Christian Gonzalez will miss the game with a shoulder injury.
That is a massive loss.
New England's defense was already struggling, and now it loses its best corner before facing one of football's top offenses.
Unfortunately, the offensive line isn't in much better shape.
The Patriots have struggled to protect Maye throughout the season. Now, they'll once again be without multiple key starters up front.
That combination has been a major problem for their young quarterback.
Maye has turned the ball over 15 times across his last six games, dating back to last season's playoffs.
Now he has to go into Buffalo without Brown and with a depleted offensive line.
That's a difficult assignment.
If the protection struggles again, this could become another long Sunday for Maye and the Patriots offense.
Buffalo Bills Team Information
Josh Allen is playing at an MVP level right now.
The Bills quarterback already has 11 total touchdowns through three games. Five have come through the air, while another six have come on the ground.
Additionally, Allen has thrown only two interceptions.
He enters this matchup with a 104.1 passer rating and a 65% completion percentage.
Then you add D.J. Moore back into the equation.
Getting Moore back from injury last week was a massive boost for this offense. His ability to stretch the field forces defenses to respect Buffalo vertically.
As a result, that should create more opportunities underneath for Dalton Kincaid and Keon Coleman.
Of course, Buffalo also has James Cook in the backfield.
Cook has been about as consistent as you could ask for at the running back position. He has already piled up 346 rushing yards through the first three weeks.
Additionally, he remains a threat as a receiver out of the backfield.
The biggest concern with Buffalo continues to be the defense.
They haven't generated pressure as consistently as you would like. Meanwhile, the secondary continues to give up too many big plays.
Buffalo did hold the Chargers to 16 points last week.
However, I wouldn't necessarily credit the defense for all of that success.
Justin Herbert missed several throws and made some questionable decisions that helped keep the score down.
Still, this matchup should give Buffalo's defense an opportunity to create some momentum.
New England is missing weapons and dealing with problems along the offensive line. More importantly, Maye has shown that he'll give defenses opportunities to take the ball away.
I expect Buffalo to generate pressure and force a few mistakes.
Game Picks
Mack Hollins Over 3.5 Receptions (-125)
We have a little revenge-game narrative here with Mack Hollins returning to Buffalo.
More importantly, the matchup sets up nicely for him.
Buffalo has been one of the league's worst defenses against wide receivers. They've consistently allowed production through both receptions and receiving yards.
Meanwhile, I expect New England to spend a good portion of this game playing from behind.
If that happens, Maye will have to throw.
With A.J. Brown sidelined again, those targets have to go somewhere.
As a result, Hollins should have plenty of opportunities to clear this number.
Four receptions isn't asking for much in a game where New England could be chasing points throughout the second half.
Give me another Mack Hollins day.
Play: Mack Hollins Over 3.5 Receptions (-125)
Buffalo Bills -6.5 (-120)
I'm buying the hook here and getting Buffalo below the key number of seven.
Simply put, I think this Bills offense will be too much for New England.
The Patriots are heading into Buffalo without Christian Gonzalez. Now, an already struggling defense has to contain Allen and one of the NFL's most dangerous offenses.
That's a brutal matchup.
On the other side, I haven't seen enough from Maye to believe his recent struggles suddenly disappear here.
His offensive line remains banged up, and he's missing his top receiving weapon.
Meanwhile, Buffalo should be playing with plenty of energy in the first divisional game at the new Highmark Stadium.
I expect Allen and this offense to put New England under pressure from the opening drive.
Ultimately, if the Patriots fall behind early, Maye will have to throw against a defense looking to create turnovers.
That's exactly the game script I want with Buffalo.
Give me the Bills to make a statement at home and cover the number.
Play: Buffalo Bills -6.5 (-120)
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