Chasing Six — NFL Expert Anytime Touchdown Picks & Predictions (10/4)
Written by: Varun Sharma
Published: Sat Oct 03, 2026, 4:40 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
nfl
Spread
Total
Moneyline
-3.0
-110
39.5
-105u
-165
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+3.0
-105
38
-110o
+145
Last week we finished an AJ Barner touchdown short of the sweep and I'm hoping for that kind of result again this week. I've got three more touchdown scorers I love this week and I'm locked in on all three.
Let's jump right into it and talk tuddies.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today's slate, take a look at our NFL Picks Page or our NFL Odds Page.
Today's Touchdowns
- Tyler Warren Anytime Touchdown (+160)
- Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown (+160)
- Tucket Kraft Anytime Touchdown (+240)
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Tyler Warren Anytime Touchdown (+160)
First touchdown of the week and we're taking a trip overseas. The Indianapolis Colts and Washington Commanders will take the field in London, England this week; playing at the legendary Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
The total in this game is sitting at 47.5 with the Colts implied team total sitting at 26 points. The Colts and the Commanders both have bottom-5 pass defenses, but the Commanders have given up the most (11) touchdowns through the air this year.
The Commanders have given up 9 of those 11 touchdowns to players in the slot and 4 of the touchdowns have come, specifically, against Mike Sainristil.
Tyler Warren's taking 35% of his snaps in the slot this year and if you go back to last season that number jumps to 44%. The Commanders have given up 4 touchdowns to the TE position this season and they've been really bad in the redzone.
Washington ranks 26th in opponent redzone efficiency, allowing opponents to convert 75% of their redzone drives into touchdowns. They've given up 9 touchdowns in the redzone and all 9 have through the air.
With Daniel Jones under center, Warren's seeing a 26% target share in the redzone. Since being drafted, we've seen Warren line up in slot on 46% of his redzone snaps.
Both Keenan Allen and Alec Pierce will miss this game, yet the total hasn't moved. This is also the second time Warren's playing overseas, finishing with 8 catches and 99 yards last year in Berlin.
Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown (+160)
Travis Kelce found the fountain of youth in the offseason and I'm loving it. Kelce leads the NFL in yards after the catch this year, recording a total of 231 receiving yards through the first three games and 2 touchdowns.
Kelce's caught 14 of his 18 targets, he's averaging 77.0 yards per game and he hasn't even seen a ton of redzone volume…yet.
This week the Chiefs head to Las Vegas to take on the Raiders in a divisional battle between two undefeated teams. The Raiders have been a huge surprise this year, winners of three straight and back to back games as an underdog.
Vegas has been good on the defensive side, giving up just 18.0 points per game, but we're still getting a total in the high 40s. The Raiders have struggled to stop teams in the redzone, allowing opponents to convert 78% of redzone opportunities into touchdowns.
Vegas has given up 5 touchdowns through the air in the redzone and all 5 have been to TEs. Kelce hasn't scored a touchdown against the Raiders since October of 2024, but he's scored 12 touchdowns against them in 24 career games.
Only 15 of those games came with Patrick Mahomes under center.
Tucker Kraft Anytime Touchdown (+240)
Tucker Kraft has not been having a good time this year. He's caught just 9 of his 17 targets, he's got 106 total receiving yards through three games and has yet to break into the endzone.
Kraft's tied for the league lead in drops (3) and that's concerning because he'd dropped a total of 6 passes in his previous 25 games. Coming back from injury is tough, even more so when it's a torn ACL.
The 25-year old TE is still finding his feet and it doesn't help that he's being asked to block so much more with the lack of OL in Green Bay. That being said, the Packers just signed 3 new OL this week and all 3 look like they'll take the field; maybe even start.
Prior to this season, in his last two years with Love under center; Kraft averaged a 28% target share in the redzone.
In the 8 games Kraft played last year, he saw a 27% target share in the redzone and 35% 1st read target share. In games with Love under center, that number jumped to 37% in the redzone. He scored 6 touchdowns in 8 games last year and 5 of those came in the redzone.
Green Bay ranks 28th in redzone efficiency right now, converting just 42% of their redzone trips into touchdowns. The team has no run game and has yet to score a rushing touchdown this year.
The Packers' desperately need the Tucker Kraft we saw last year and this feels like the perfect week for a comeback.
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