49ers vs. Seahawks | 2025 NFL Divisional Round: Third Time’s the Charm
Written by: Varun Sharma
Last Update: Sat Jan 17, 2026, 4:06 pm ET
Read Time: 7 minutes
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The Seahawks and 49ers will meet for the third time this year, this time in the Divisional Round. Let's jump straight into it.
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Game Information
Matchup Information
- Location: Lumen Field; Seattle, Washington
- Date: Saturday, January 17th, 2026
- Kickoff: 8:00 PM EST
Quarterback Matchup
- San Francisco 49ers: Brock Purdy (6-9; 2024 – 257.6 YPG | 20 TD | 12 INT)
- Seattle Seahawks: Sam Darnold (14-3; 2024 – 254.1 YPG | 35 TD | 12 INT)
Betting Odds
Odds via Lucky Rebel, an industry leader in the sports betting world.
Analysis & Breakdown
Legion Go Boom
I can't talk enough about this Seattle defensive unit. The team's 1st in points allowed, 5th in opponent redzone efficiency, 10th in pass yards allowed and 3rd in opponent rush yards. Seattle's giving up just 4.5 yards per play (2nd) this year and it's lead to a ton of low scoring games for their opponents.
Seattle's most recent game was a perfect display of how this unit's won them games this year. The Hawks played this same Niners team in Week 18, finished with 361 total yards of offense and controlled possession for 63% of the game. They scored just 13 points and ended up winning the game by double digits. Seattle held the Niners to just 173 total yards of offense, 9 total first downs and held Christian McCaffrey to under 60 total yards from scrimmage.
Offensively, the Seahawks have been almost as good. The offense ranks 3rd in points scored, 8th in pass yards, 10th in rush yards and 3rd in yards per play. Darnold finished 5th in the NFL this year in pass yards, threw 25 touchdowns but did also have 14 interceptions.
Ten of Darnold's 14 interceptions have come in the last nine games, but somehow the Hawks have managed to win eight of the nine. This defense is elite and the 1.5 turnovers per game they generate has done a lot to offset some of these mistakes made by Sam.
Niner Gang
The 49ers are beat up, bruised and missing countless guys on all sides of the football. Last week we saw George Kittle suffer a torn achilles in the Wild Card Round and now they'll once again be without their All-Pro TE. With the loss of Kittle, that's now three All-Pro caliber players out of the game, with both Fred Warner and Nick Bosa still sidelined.
All season the 49ers have had a 'next man up' mentality and it's helped lead the team to 12 wins and a spot in the Divisional Round. The offense ranks 10th in points scored, 4th in redzone efficiency, 5th in pass yards and 10th in yards per play. The Niners offensive line has been a top-5 pass blocking unit and it's helped the team record the 5th fewest sacks surrendered.
On the other side of the ball, the defense just hasn't been the same without Fred Warner and Nick Bosa. The Niners have the worst graded pass rush amongst all playoff teams, ranking 28th overall and dead last in sacks. The defense ranks bottom-5 in pressure rate, QB hits and tackles for a loss. Last week the team managed just 9 pressures on Jalen Hurts, 1 sack and really did nothing to affect the game.
The problem is Sam Darnold's been one of the best in the league when it comes to passing the ball from a clean pocket. His completion percentage jumps to 74.5% and he's got a passer rating of 110.7. If the Niners can't get pressure this weekend, it might get ugly in Seattle.
Trends/Insights
Seattle
Sam Darnold thrives as a favorite. As a favorite of:
- > 3 points: 16-3 SU | 11-8 ATS
- > 4 points: 14-1 SU | 10-5 ATS
- > 5 points: 13-0 SU | 10-3 ATS
- Average margin of victory in games with spread >5 points: 16.1 PPG
San Francisco
Head Coach Kyle Shanahan is widely regarded as one of the NFL's best. He's been Head Coach of the 49ers for 9 seasons, finishing with double digit wins in 5 of the 9 years and making it to the Super Bowl twice.
- Kyle Shanahan is 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in the Wild Card Round/Divisional Rounds; going a perfect 3-0 as an underdog.
- Shanahan is 9-4 SU in the playoffs and has never won fewer than two games in a single playoff run.
Purdy's won five of the seven playoff games he's played.Averaging 229.3 pass yards per game with 8 touchdowns and 3 interceptions.
- Purdy's started eight career games against the Hawks, going 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS in these games.
- In Seattle, Purdy's a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS; winning by an average of 10.5 PPG.
- Purdy is 7-1 SU on the road, against the NFC West.
- Purdy has played a Mike Macdonald defense five times in his career: averaging 7.2 yards/attempts, with 6 TDs, 8 interceptions and a passer rating of 79.7.
McCaffrey loves the postseason.
- McCaffrey's averaging 71.3 rush yards per game, 47.5 receiving yards per game and he's scored 11 total touchdowns.
- McCaffrey's scored a touchdown in 8 straight playoff games, 1 game shy of the all-time record.
Saturday's Best Bets
Jaxson Smith-Njigba o6.5 Receptions (-110) | Lucky Rebel
This one's a little chalky, but I'm taking it. Smith-Njigba lead the NFL in receiving yards this year, finished 4th in receptions and 6th in receiving touchdowns. The kid's been unstoppable this year and a lot of it has to do with the fact Darnold's just always looking his way.
Smith-Njigba's seeing a 32.7% target share this year and 33.9% target rate against zone defenses. The Niners run zone at the 8th highest rate in the NFL and Single-Hi coverage at the 9th highest rate. Jaxson's torched both coverages this year.
- JSN vs. Single-Hi: 3.81 YPRR (2nd) | 0.32 TPRR (4th) | 0.77 FP/RR (4th)
- JSN vs. Zone: 3.76 (3rd) | 0.33 (2nd) | 0.70 (3rd)
Smith-Njigba ranks 1st in the NFL in first read target share, seeing 44.6% of the team's first read targets and it's directly lead to a big year for the former Buckeye. JSN finished with 14 total catches in two games against the Niners this year, seeing a 40% target share in these two games and finishing with no less than 6 receptions in either one.
Weather's clear in Seattle this weekend and it's looking like a great day to bet Jaxson Smith-Njigba.
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