2021 NFL Futures: Aaron Rodgers is angry, and sportsbooks are forced to react

Aaron Rodgers, the Green Bay Packers’ MVP quarterback, was making noise so loud it caused NFL futures lines to change and, in some cases, disappear.

ESPN NFL insider Adam Schefter, hours before last Thursday’s first draft pick in the NFL draft, tweeted:

“Reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers is so disgruntled with the Green Bay Packers that he has told some within the organization that he does not want to return to the team, league and team sources told ESPN on Thursday.”

The Packers, who were listed as a legitimate Super Bowl contender (from 7-1 to 9-1 in most cases) when markets opened following the playoffs, had slipped to +1400 to +1600 in many sportsbooks early this week.

And it’s not only the Packers’ number that is affected.

“We are mainly protecting potential landing spots for Rodgers, which include the 49ers and Broncos," MyBookie’s Mike Korn told covers.com. “The 49ers shifted from +1,500 to +1,200 and the Broncos from +6,000 to +1,800. The Broncos would become automatic title contenders with the addition of the Hall of Fame QB.”

At MyBookie, the NFL’s top two teams from 2020 are still one-two. The Kansas City Chiefs, who opened at +600, are the +450 favorite; the defending champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers, after opening at +1200, are at +700.

The Rams, Bills, 49ers and Ravens are all within close proximity for No. 3 on the consensus list.

William Hill, similar to most sportsbooks, removed the option for betting win totals, division futures and playoff odds for both the Packers (NFC North) and Broncos (AFC West), since another caveat from sources was that Rodgers prefers Denver, Las Vegas and San Francisco.

The 49ers were mentioned prominently with good reason, given their strong supporting cast but a relatively weak link at QB. Among the possible destinations for Rodgers, they drafted Trey Lance with the third overall selection last Thursday and are likely sticking with incumbent Jimmy Garoppolo while Lance learns the system.

A covers.com consensus of several books showed the 49ers moving from +1400 to +1200, but the more desperate Broncos shooting from +6000 to +2000 on the Packers news.

In Las Vegas, the SuperBook at Westgate moved the Broncos, from +6,000 to +2,000, as well, though on Saturday, Denver was back to +3,000.

A Denver Post estimation of the consensus odds of a Broncos Super Bowl win this season put Denver at 24th, +6,600, before the Rodgers circus began. Now, they were ninth-best to take home a title at +2,200. Those odds are similar to what some other books have moved their Broncos odds to as well.

• William Hill: +2,000
• BetOnline: +2,400
• DraftKings: +2,500

    
    

		

            

				
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Aaron Rodgers’ decision process could take some time

Rodgers was already upset because the Packers drafted Utah State quarterback Jordan Love at the 2020 NFL Draft – he believed they should have focused on surrounding their current, Hall of Fame-bound MVP QB with added talent – and indicated that if his trade request was denied he would simply sit out or retire.

If the Packers organization is to be believed, there will be no trade.

General Manager Brian Gutekunst: "We're not going to trade Aaron Rodgers. He's our quarterback, he's our leader. We've been working through for a little while now. It may take some time. He's the guy that makes this thing go. He gives us the best chance to win. We're going to work towards that end.”

DraftKings odds have Rodgers remaining with the Packers as the favored outcome at -125.

If he leaves, Denver is the most likely choice at +200. The Raiders (+500), Saints (+900) and Panthers (+900) follow the Broncos as of Wednesday.

Conversely, teams with promising young quarterbacks or established stars of their own have the longest odds, according to DraftKings Nation.

“Las Vegas is a good spot to go for Rodgers,” DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello told the Review-Journal. “He’s been playing in cold weather his whole career, so to get a chance to play in a place like Las Vegas might suit him well. But the Raiders re-signed their backup (Marcus) Mariota. It would kind of be unlikely. I think it’s either he’s staying in Green Bay or going to Denver.”

Avello said in a playia.com story that odds are trending more toward a Rodgers-Packers re-run in 2021: “Sticking around in Green Bay was the favorite — it was -110. Going to Denver was +140. And the Raiders were 6- or 7-to-1. But now, Green Bay is -150. So the bettors think that’s where he’s going to stick.”

So the most likely situation has the NFL MVP under center when the season begins in September.

“I wouldn’t disagree with that,” Avello said. “It’s just that a lot times when there’s smoke, there’s fire, you know? There’s something to Aaron Rodgers here, whether he’s not happy there or wants to be traded. Green Bay is the favorite … but, you know, there’s always a chance that he will move and that news will come quickly.”

The Packers were a big favorite to win the NFC North. Now, Avello says the Vikings have closed the gap a bit.

As of Tuesday afternoon, the division odds were: Packers, -115; Vikings, +250; Bears, +325; Lions, +2000.

The importance of a top quarterback can’t be overstated. Remember the addition to the Buccaneers’ backfield?

“Look what happened,” Avello said in the playia.com story. “They won the Super Bowl. Quarterback is the most important position in the in the NFL and a good one is hard to find — a Hall-of-Famer is really, really hard to find.”