#19 Virginia vs. Missouri Picks and Predictions: TaxSlater Gator Bowl
Written by: Nate Hornung
Last Update: Fri Dec 26, 2025, 9:46 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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The ACC Runner Ups meet a middle of the pack SEC squad at EverBank Stadium on Saturday night. The No. 19 ranked Virginia Cavaliers blew their chance at the College Football Playoff by losing to Duke in the conference championship, but now they try to end their season with a win over Missouri in the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl. Let's get into our favorite picks and find out who wins this game.
Best Bet: Virginia TT Over 20.5 (-102) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
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#19 Virginia Cavaliers vs. Missouri Tigers Gator Bowl Insights
Will Ahmad Hardy stay at Mizzou next year?
Virginia finished the year 10-3 overall, losing to NC State, Wake Forest and Duke, all by one score or less. Missouri went 8-4 amongst a very tough schedule, losing to No. 8 Alabama, No. 10 Vanderbilt, No. 3 Texas A&M and No. 8 Oklahoma, three teams who made the College Football Playoff. While they don't have any ranked wins on their resume, this would be a chance to snag one.
Cavalier's quarterback Chandler Morris is appealing for another season of eligibility, but I would assume he plays? Why wouldn't he? Virginia may also be missing wide out Trell Harris who left the ACC Championship with an injury. Starting corner Ja'Son Prevard has entered the portal.
Missouri's quarterback Beau Pribula will not play, and neither will the Tiger's third and fourth leading receivers, Marquis Johnson and Joshua Manning. Freshman Matt Zollers gets the start, which will be his fourth of the season. Starting linebacker and leading tackler Josiah Trotter will not play, and neither will tight end Brent Norfleet.
All in all, Missouri is very low on pass catchers, missing at least 40% of their receptions, 39% of their receiving yards and 60% of their receiving touchdowns (Norfleet led Mizzou with five).
Matchup Information – Virginia vs. Missouri – December 27
- Venue & Location: EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, FL)
- Date: Saturday, December 27, 2025
- Kick Off: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
- Broadcast: ABC
Virginia vs. Missouri Betting Odds
Odds are courtesy of Lucky Rebel Sportsbook, one of our favorite online sportsbooks, as of December 26, 2025 at 8:45 p.m. eastern. Sign up today and get a $1,250 deposit bonus & 50 slot spins right away. Lucky Rebel offers a wide variety of unique markets across nearly every sport imaginable.
Spread
- Virginia +4 (-110)
- Missouri -4 (-110)
Moneyline
- Virginia +150
- Missouri -183
Total
- Over 43.5 (-109)
- Under 43.5 (-111)
The spread and total have both steamed down. Virginia was catching over a touchdown at the opener, and the total was just north of 50. Now we see a spread of just four, and a total nearly an entire possession lower.
#19 Virginia vs. Missouri Gator Bowl Picks and Predictions
Chandler Morris and the Cavaliers take on the Missouri Tigers on Saturday
Virginia vs. Missouri Prediction: Missouri Wins, Virginia Covers, Over 43.5
Best Bet: Virginia TT Over 20.5 (-102) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Do some line shopping, because there are some 19.5s out there for -120, which I willingly paid. While statistically speaking the Virginia offense isn't all that flashy, they are still scoring over 30 points per game, and are top 12 in third down conversions. Defensively, they are top 25 in points and yards allowed per game, while ranking third in the country in third down conversions allowed. This could lead to some quick Tiger possessions, giving the Cavaliers the ball back. I have very little faith in Missouri's offense with Zollers at the helm.
The Tigers certainly have some good stats defensively, but they are north of 100 in red zone scoring allowed, and No. 98 in interceptions forced. Chandler Morris might be able to throw for 300. I lean with Virginia, but with the spread steaming down so far, backing them on the team total is enough for me. Their offense is still potent enough to get the job done, plus they are playing in their first bowl appearance since 2019, looking for their first postseason win since 2018.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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