LSU vs. #21 Houston Picks and Predictions: Texas Bowl Best Bets
Written by: Nate Hornung
Last Update: Fri Dec 26, 2025, 9:46 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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Although the LSU Tigers have a lot of excitement surrounding their program with Lane Kiffin coming to town, they still have to close out this character building season. The Tigers lost five of their last eight games of the season, yet they have won three straight bowl games. Can they add another to the trophy case this weekend? They meet the No. 21 ranked Houston Cougars in their home city for the Kinder's Texas Bowl. Let's get into our picks and analysis.
Best Bet: Houston ML (-114) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
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LSU Tigers vs. #21 Houston Cougars Texas Bowl Insights
Garrett Nussmeier has not seen the field in three games for the Tigers, and he will not start this bowl game
The Tigers' only "good" win this year came against No. 4 Clemson in the first game of the season. Clemson ended the year 7-5 after starting 3-5. LSU has ranked losses to Ole Miss, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, Alabama and Oklahoma as they were beat up all year long. They barely beat Arkansas and Western Kentucky late in the year.
Michael Van Buren will make his fourth straight start, and the Tigers will miss plenty of players otherwise. They are very thin all over.
As for Houston, quarterback Connor Weigman has announced he will return after leading the Cougars to a 9-3 season. A bowl win would be their first since 2022, and their first 10 win season since before joining the Big 12.
Matchup Information – LSU vs. Houston – December 27
- Venue & Location: NRG Stadium (Houston, TX)
- Date: Saturday, December 27, 2025
- Kick Off: 9:15 p.m. Eastern
- Broadcast: ESPN
LSU vs. Houston Betting Odds
Odds are courtesy of Lucky Rebel Sportsbook, one of our favorite online sportsbooks, as of December 26, 2025 at 9:23 p.m. eastern. Sign up today and get a $1,250 deposit bonus & 50 slot spins right away. Lucky Rebel offers a wide variety of unique markets across nearly every sport imaginable.
Spread
- LSU +1 (-112)
- Houston -1 (-108)
Moneyline
- LSU -106
- Houston -114
Total
- Over 41.5 (-110)
- Under 41.5 (-110)
Let's be honest. Houston is playing in Houston… in the Texas Bowl… against LSU. The script writes itself, people. Lane Kiffin doesn't want to inherit a team coming off a bowl win with an interim head coach. He wants to lead them out of the depths of hell, which is where they will be after the Cougars dismantle them in this bowl game.
LSU vs. #21 Houston Texas Bowl Picks and Predictions
Conner Weigman has revamped this Houston football team
LSU vs Houston Prediction: Houston Wins and Covers, Under 41.5
Best Bet: Houston ML (-114) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Houston has been sneaky impressive all year long, losing only to Texas Tech (with their backup QB), West Virginia and TCU this year. The Cougars are the much more balanced team in this situation.
Is LSU's defense better overall? Absolutely. But their offense is trash. The Tigers have managed less than 19 points per game this year, ranking bottom 20 in both yards and points per contest. All they do is pass, but they are bottom 15 in yards per attempt, third down conversions and red zone scoring percentage.
Houston is probably a top 40 unit on both sides of the football. They run the ball a ton, but can move it through the air if they have to. I really like the under in this contest, but I have zero faith in the Tigers contributing. They've put up just 14.5 points per game in their last four with Van Buren under center, and the Cougars' entire program is trending in the right direction. This is a chance for them to end on a high note and build plenty of momentum heading into 2026.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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