Tennessee vs. Illinois Picks and Predictions: Music City Bowl
Written by: Nate Hornung
Last Update: Tue Dec 30, 2025, 11:30 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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The Tennessee Volunteers and Illinois Fighting Illini meet in Nashville for the Music City Bowl on Tuesday evening. These two schools already had their basketball teams meet on Broadway at Bridgestone in November, where the Illini took down the Volunteers. Will Rocky Top be able to get their revenge on the gridiron this evening? Let's get into our favorite picks and find out if Bret Bielema or Josh Heupel will lead their team to victory.
Both teams had College Football Playoff hopes at the start of the season. Illinois was ranked as high as No. 9 in the nation while Tennessee were as high as No. 11 at one point. But now, both unranked squads meet for a bowl game, that hopefully will mean something on the field.
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Best Bet: Tennessee/Illinois Over 61 (-113) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Go check out what else I've got on the slate for bowl season, and view the latest odds at the best online sportsbooks.
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Music City Bowl Insights
Luke Altmyer will start his last game for the Illini this evening in Nashville
Both these teams ended 8-4 on the year, but Illinois ended with a win, while the Volunteers lost to Vanderbilt in their season finale. Now the two go head to head as both try to end the season with a bowl victory. Let's get into opt outs.
Luke Altmyer will play in his final game for the Illini in Nashville on Tuesday, but they will be missing starting safety Matthew Bailey. Bielema said he only thinks there will be 6-10 players entering the transfer portal, but all will be allowed to play if they please. He mentioned just one of those players is a starter.
On the Volunteer's side, we have a lot more to deal with. For starters, they fired their DC, so LB coach William Inge will be taking over. Tennessee will be missing their top wide receiver as Chris Brazzell II has opted out of this game. He led the Vols with over 1,000 receiving yards and nine touchdowns. Can the other pass catchers step up when their team needs it?
Matchup Information – Tennessee vs. Illinois – December 30
- Venue & Location: Nissan Stadium (Nashville, TN)
- Date: Tuesday, December 30, 2025
- Kick Off: 5:30 p.m. Eastern
- Broadcast: ESPN
Tennessee vs. Illinois Betting Odds
Odds are courtesy of Lucky Rebel Sportsbook, one of our favorite online sportsbooks, as of December 30, 2025 at 10:21 a.m. eastern. Sign up today and get a $1,250 deposit bonus & 50 slot spins right away. Lucky Rebel offers a wide variety of unique markets across nearly every sport imaginable.
Spread
- Tennessee -3.5 (-103)
- Illinois +3.5 (-118)
Moneyline
- Tennessee -168
- Illinois +136
Total
- Over 61 (-113)
- Under 61 (-107)
Tennessee vs. Illinois Music City Bowl Picks and Predictions
Joey Aguilar and Tennessee face Illinois in the Music City Bowl
Tennessee vs. Illinois Prediction: Illinois Wins Outright, Over 61
Best Bet: Tennessee/Illinois Over 61 (-113) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Neither team could stop anyone during the regular season, and I don't see it starting now. Tennessee was 8-4 to the over this year, while the Illini were just 5-6, including ending the year with four straight unders. But let's look at the offensive vs. defensive numbers.
The Volunteers are top 10 in yards and points per game, including ranking No. 11 in third down conversions. Clearly a very dangerous unit scoring nearly 38 points every time they take the field. Illinois is a little further behind, but still top half of the country. The Illini are top 45 in points per play and top 60 in yards per play, plus they rank No. 45 in third down conversions offensively. But let's talk defense.
Illinois is bottom 15 in third down conversions allowed, bottom 30 in red zone scoring percentage, and are outside the top 55 in both yards and points per game. Tennessee is even worse. The Vols defense ranks north of 90 in yards and points allowed, while also ranking north of 95 in red zone scoring percentage and third down conversions allowed.
Tennessee scored 30+ nine times this season, while allowed that number on seven occasions as well. Illinois scored 30+ just six times, allowing 30+ four times, including giving up 27 points to the Wisconsin Badgers late in the year.
Two good offenses, against two bad defenses, in a game where every player is trying to showcase their stuff. Give me points.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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