NCAA Football National Championship Picks: Miami vs. Indiana Predictions
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Mon Jan 19, 2026, 9:45 am ET
Read Time: 6 minutes
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Tonight is the final game of the NCAA Football season. The College Football Playoff has come and gone, and we are down to our final two schools. The top ranked Indiana Hoosiers, led by Curt Cignetti, head into Hard Rock Stadium tonight to face the No. 10 Miami Hurricanes. Many people (me) believe the Hurricanes didn't deserve to make the field of 12, but here they are just one win away from hoisting the trophy. Can Carson Beck finish this Cinderella run? Or will Fernando Mendoza cap off a perfect season for the Hoo-Hoo Hoosiers? Let's talk to our CFB experts and get their favorite picks in the contest.
Go check out what else I've got on the slate for bowl season, and view the latest odds at the best online sportsbooks.
#10 Miami Hurricanes vs. #1 Indiana Hoosiers National Championship Information
Mark Fletcher has run for 131.6 yards per game in the College Football Playoff
Matchup Information – Miami vs. Indiana – January 19
- Venue & Location: Hard Rock Stadium (Miami, FL)
- Date: Monday, January 19, 2025
- Kick Off: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
- Broadcast: ESPN
Miami vs. Indiana Betting Odds
Odds are courtesy of Lucky Rebel Sportsbook, one of our favorite online sportsbooks, as of January 19, 2025 at 9:36 a.m. eastern. Sign up today and get a $1,250 deposit bonus & 50 slot spins right away. Lucky Rebel offers a wide variety of unique markets across nearly every sport imaginable.
Spread
- Miami +7.5 (-112)
- Indiana -7.5 (-108)
Moneyline
- Miami +250
- Indiana -325
Total
- Over 47 (-113)
- Under 47 (-107)
#10 Miami vs. #1 Indiana National Championship Picks and Predictions
Fernando Mendoza and Indiana are one win away from a historic, undefeated season
Colby Marchio's Best Bet: Highest Scoring Half – Second (+115) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
The second half to be the highest-scoring half at +115 is my favorite look in this matchup. I originally wrote that I might look toward Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza to score a touchdown or to go over 20+ rushing yards. Those are still two fantastic looks if you're able to bet college football player props. However, this game prop is how I'm going to attack the final game of the season.
Both teams feature exceptional defenses, and I expect them to be fully prepared early, limiting scoring in the first half. On the season, both defenses rank inside the top five in first-half points allowed. Each gives up fewer than seven points before halftime, with Miami allowing 4.8 points and Indiana allowing 6.6.
I expect halftime adjustments to open things up, leading to more explosive offense in the second half. We've seen plenty of late scoring in these playoff games. The Fiesta Bowl featured 25 points in the fourth quarter alone. The Peach Bowl saw 36 points in the second half. Yes, there were 42 points in the first half of that game, but Miami brings a much stronger defense than Oregon.
It's the final game of the season. Play smart and have fun.
Thank you all for keeping up with both of our write-ups all season long. You're the reason we're able to churn out picks every day. Let's sweep tonight!
Curt Cignetti is 26-2 as head coach of the Indiana Hoosiers, soon to be 27-2 with a championship
Nate Hornung's Best Bet: Indiana -7.5 (-108) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
I am constantly kicking myself for not taking the Hoosiers at +135 prior to either semifinal matchup, because I'd love to be holding that ticket. Instead, I'll just opt for the Hoosiers to cover the spread. Now this line opened at -7.5 and quickly went up to -8 or -8.5, but has worked it's way back down. I'll go ahead and take the bait.
I was very vocal in my lack of trust for Carson Beck, especially considering he relied heavily on his defense and the running game to win the first two CFP games. He completed less than 20 passes in those contests, but came alive against Ole Miss. The problem? The Rebels defense is not comparable to Indiana's.
Ole Miss ranked outside of the top 40 in points allowed, outside the top 50 in yards per game and third down conversions allowed, while dropping to No. 102 in red zone scoring percentage. The rushing unit allowed nearly 4.5 yards per carry, putting them in the bottom half of the nation. Clearly, offense is what got the Rebels this far, so it makes sense that Beck finally has a solid game against them. But can he do it two times in a row? Against a much tougher defense, perhaps one of the best units in the country?
Indiana is second in the nation in points allowed and third in yards given up. They rank top 10 in both yards allowed per carry and third down conversions, and are still top 40 in red zone scoring percentage. They break the top 10 in interceptions forced and the top 15 in getting to the quarterback. While Mendoza may be tested as well, I think the Hoosiers' defense is the game changer in this one, giving them a perfect 16-0 season as they win this game by double digits.
Break out the American Spirits or Marlboro Reds, everybody's smoking Cigs tonight!
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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