Is Mississippi State Legit? Expert Picks (10/3)
Written by: PJ Glasser
Last Update: Thu Oct 01, 2026, 2:35 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
ncaaf
Spread
Total
Moneyline
-5.5
-110
60
-110u
-225
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+6.0
-110
60
-110o
+190
I think the game of the week in Week 5 of College Football is being played in Starkville, Mississippi between the Tide and the Bulldogs. Both teams come into this game undefeated and top 16 teams in the country. This has been a one-sided series as of late. Bama has won 16 straight games against Mississippi State, but this matchup on Saturday has a little different feel than those others. Can Miss State finally upset Alabama?
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NCAA Football Expert Insights: Alabama vs Mississippi State
Keelon Russell and the Tide look to keep rolling
If you like offense and Quarterback play then this matchup is for you. I believe two of the three best QB's in the country are playing in Starkville on Saturday – Keelon Russell and Kamario Taylor. Along with Trinidad Chambliss I think right now those three are the best signal callers in college football.
Russell has only played four games so far for the Tide, but man has he been impressive. The sophomore has thrown for 1,129 yards with 8 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions. His completion percentage is 70.9% and he has 168 yards rushing and 3 rushing TD's as well.
On the flip side, Kamario Taylor has been even better. 1,192 passing yards, 14 passing TD's and 2 interceptions. Also, he has 185 rush yds and 1 rushing TD.
Both teams have played comparable schedules up to this point, but this will be the best team either team has faced and will be a great litmus test for both.
Alabama Crimson Tide vs Mississippi State Bulldogs : NCAA Football Expert Picks
Can Kamario Taylor lead his Bulldogs to an upset over the Tide?
Matchup Information – Alabama vs Mississippi State – October 3
- Venue & Location: Davis Wade Stadium
- Date: Saturday, October 3, 2026
- Kick Off: 12:00 PM ET
- Broadcast: ABC
Alabama vs Mississippi State Betting Odds
Odds listed are from BetOnline as of Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:48 a.m. eastern.
Spread
- Alabama -5 (-110)
- Mississippi State +5 (-110)
Moneyline
- Alabama -213
- Mississippi State +182
Total
- Over 60.5 (-110)
- Under 60.5 (-110)
Alabama vs Mississippi State Prediction: Mississippi State Wins, Mississippi State Covers, Over 60.5
Best Bet: Mississippi State +5 (-110) and ML (+182) BetOnline
As I mentioned, Bama has beaten Mississippi State sixteen times in a row. I think that number is snapped on Saturday. Both of these teams are pretty similar. Elite QB play, very good offense, and the passing defense is a little shaky. On top of all that, Bama hasn't been great under Kalen DeBoer on the road. They are 5-6 ATS and have lost 4 of those games outright. The Crimson Tide have gotten off to some slow starts in games this season and if they do that again on Saturday I think they're going to lose.
I've talked about this on the Betting News network a lot over the last few weeks, but Mississippi State has the feel of a team that is going to have one of those special seasons. They got the aura about them right now, they have the confidence, and more importantly they have the Quarterback. Yes, on paper Alabama has the better team and there is a reason the Tide are a 5-point favorite. I wouldn't want to step in front of this bulldog train right now though.
As great as Keelon Russell has been to start the season this is still only his second road game as a starting Quarterback. Keep in mind Bama hosts Georgia next week at home too. You would hope all their attention is on this game, but you never know. I said two weeks ago it would be the most Kalen DeBoer thing ever for Bama to lose this game and then beat Georgia next week and I'm sticking by that prediction.
Last week it was Jadan Baugh and Florida who got the big win over Ole Miss to put them in the national spotlight. This week I think it will be Kamario Taylor and Mississippi State and we will be talking about this kid as a legit threat to win the Heisman trophy.
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