Missouri State vs. Arkansas State Picks and Predictions: Xbox Bowl Best Bets
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Thu Dec 18, 2025, 10:35 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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Bowl Season continues on Thursday, and even though we have a killer matchup in the NFL as two NFC West teams go head to head, there's still one college football game to wager on! The Missouri State Bears and Arkansas State Red Wolves meet in Frisco, Texas to face off in the Xbox Bowl. Thankfully we've got minimal injuries and opt outs to work with, plus, we've found ourselves a little narrative to follow in this game. Let's get into our favorite picks.
Go check out what else I've got on the slate for bowl season, and view the latest odds at the best online sportsbooks.
Missouri State Bears vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves Xbox Bowl Insights
Jaylen Raynor has 23 total touchdowns for the Red Wolves, but also 11 interceptions
The Red Wolves went 6-6 this season in the Sun Belt West. They were blown out by Arkansas but competed against Iowa State before going 5-3 during conference play, stringing together four wins during the bulk of it. Plus, they won their season finale on the road against Appalachian State in order to become bowl eligible.
As for the Bears, they went 7-5, but were sitting at 7-3 after 10 games. They dropped their last two to end the year, however they were at least forgivable losses. The Conference USA team lost to eventual conference champion Kennesaw State by a touchdown on the road, and lost their finale to Louisiana Tech at home, another solid team in the CUSA. Now they have a chance to end the season on a high note by winning the Xbox Bowl tonight.
Matchup Information – Missouri State vs. Arkansas State – December 18
- Venue & Location: For Center at The Star (Frisco, TX)
- Date: Thursday, December 18, 2025
- Kick Off: 9:00 p.m. Eastern
- Broadcast: ESPN2
Missouri State vs. Arkansas State Betting Odds
Odds are courtesy of Lucky Rebel Sportsbook, one of our favorite online sportsbooks, as of December 18, 2025 at 9:41 a.m. eastern. Sign up today and get a $1,250 deposit bonus & 50 slot spins right away. Lucky Rebel offers a wide variety of unique markets across nearly every sport imaginable.
Spread
- Missouri State -2 (-109)
- Arkansas State +2 (-111)
Moneyline
- Missouri State -125
- Arkansas State +103
Total
- Over 54.5 (-110)
- Under 54.5 (-110)
Jacob Clark is a senior quarterback for the Bears, but he grew up playing most of his high school football in the Dallas-Fort Worth Area, where he plays tonight. It will be his final game in pads, as he is not moving on to the next level, but I could see him ending his career with a bang in his hometown.
Missouri State vs. Arkansas State Xbox Bowl Picks and Predictions
Jacob Clark needs just 105 passing yards to reach 3,000 through the air this season
Missouri State vs. Arkansas State Prediction: Missouri State Wins and Covers, Over 54.5
Best Bet: Missouri State ML (-125) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
If you want to stop the Bears, you have to stop the pass, and Arkansas State can't do that.
Both defenses aren't that good. Missouri State is north of 85 in both yards and points allowed per game, and are north of 110 at stopping the run. The secondary is a little better, but not by much. As for the Red Wolves, they are No. 78 in points allowed, but No. 109 in yards conceded per game. Plus, they are north of 100 in yards per rush and pass.
Jacob Clark is going to sling the pill tonight. Missouri State throws the football 54% of the time, and are very efficient in doing so. The Bears are top 25 in both yards per pass (8.2) and passing yards per game. They struggle to run, but that's okay, because throwing for over 270 yards per game produces enough points. The Red Wolves secondary is bottom 10 in completion percentage (67.6%) and bottom 30 in yards per pass allowed. I was able to snag Clark's passing yards for over 182.5 (-115) this morning in what was probably a faulty line, as that number is gone and his line is now set around 270 yards (which is still a go in my eyes).
Regardless, Clark will end his football career with a bowl win for his team in the metro area where he was a high school stud.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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