Friday night football in Eugene.
We are spoiled with two great matchups closing out the week, and this one grabbed my attention far more than Clemson at No. 20 Louisville. The Minnesota Golden Gophers head west to take on No. 8 Oregon, coming off their bye week and ready to close the season strong. Before the break, Minnesota edged Michigan State 23-20 as 4.5 point favorites. Oregon enters on a short week, riding a three game winning streak after surviving at Iowa. The question is whether the Ducks will be rested and motivated enough to cover the 25 point spread on Friday night. Let us dive in.
Line Movement
This line opened at 21.5 in favor of Oregon and has since ballooned to 25. I grabbed the Gophers at 24.5 earlier in the week, expecting some buyback toward Minnesota. I was wrong, but I still secured the key number of 24 that I wanted. The total has held firm at 44 since opening. I have no opinion on the total, but Minnesota +25 is the side for me.
Do the Ducks Care?
For starters, Oregon is fresh off a narrow road win at Iowa. Now they return home to host a Minnesota team on short rest, with No. 17 USC waiting next week. This feels like a spot where Oregon will simply play to win and keep things conservative. Facing Minnesota does not inspire much motivation, and this has all the makings of a classic look ahead spot. Meanwhile, the Golden Gophers had nearly two weeks to prepare after their overtime win over Michigan State before the bye week.
It is worth noting that Minnesota has yet to cover the spread on the road this season. However, look at who they faced: at Iowa as 7.5 point underdogs, at Ohio State as 23.5 point underdogs, and at Cal, where they lost as three point favorites. Two understandable blowouts and one bad loss. They are 2-6-1 against the spread overall, but that record does not concern me here. In a spot where Oregon may go through the motions, Minnesota has every reason to hang around and cash this number.
