#10 Miami vs. #6 Ole Miss Picks and Predictions: Fiesta Bowl Bets
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Tue Jan 06, 2026, 3:12 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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We have reached the College Football Playoff Semifinals with the first matchup being played Thursday night out in Arizona. Both the No. 10 Miami Hurricanes and No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels are a long way from home, as both head to the desert for the VRBO Fiesta Bowl. Now, both of these teams started in the first round and pulled off two wins to end up in this semifinal matchup, but only one can move on. Will the Hurricanes keep their Cinderella run going? Or can the Rebels find a way to stick it to Lane Kiffin once again? Find out below with our CFB expert picks and predictions.
Best Bet: Ole Miss +3.5 (-118) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Go check out what else I've got on the slate for bowl season, and view the latest odds at the best online sportsbooks.
#10 Miami Hurricanes vs. #6 Ole Miss Rebels Fiesta Bowl Insights
Do we trust Carson Beck to use his arm to defeat the Rebels on Thursday?
I don't want to discredit Miami at all for their two wins in the College Football Playoff so far. But how good were those wins? Beating Texas A&M on the road as a field goal underdog was big, I'll admit it, but it would've been a lot tougher at Kyle Field at night. As for their win over the Buckeyes, some of us had a feeling this Ohio State offense was nowhere near the powerhouse they were last season. But still, they had to get the job done and they did.
The Rebels have a unique kind of motivation. Lane Kiffin leaving for an in-conference rival ignited a fire in the Rebels' locker room that cannot be extinguished. They are absolutely rolling. This team demolished Tulane in their opening round game, and got their revenge over the Georgia Bulldogs in the quarterfinals. Will the offense stay hot against this Hurricanes' defense that has allowed just 8.5 points per game in the CFP so far?
Matchup Information – Miami vs. Ole Miss – January 8
- Venue & Location: State Farm Stadium (Glendale, AZ)
- Date: Thursday, January 8, 2025
- Kick Off: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
- Broadcast: ESPN
Miami vs. Ole Miss Betting Odds
Odds are courtesy of Lucky Rebel Sportsbook, one of our favorite online sportsbooks, as of January 6, 2025 at 2:29 p.m. eastern. Sign up today and get a $1,250 deposit bonus & 50 slot spins right away. Lucky Rebel offers a wide variety of unique markets across nearly every sport imaginable.
Spread
- Miami -3.5 (-103)
- Ole Miss +3.5 (-118)
Moneyline
- Miami -172
- Ole Miss +141
Total
- Over 52.5 (-107)
- Under 52.5 (-113)
#10 Miami vs. #6 Ole Miss Fiesta Bowl Picks and Predictions
Trinidad Chambliss leads the Rebels against Miami in the Fiesta Bowl on Thursday
Miami vs. Ole Miss Prediction: Ole Miss Wins Outright, Under 52.5
Best Bet: Ole Miss +3.5 (-118) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Getting the field goal plus the hook might be crucial in this game, and it's certainly making me lean with the underdog. Although, I have a feeling Ole Miss can win this game outright. Their offense is the best Miami has seen this season, period. Notre Dame, Texas A&M and Ohio State do not compare to the Rebels when it comes to moving the ball.
Trinidad Chambliss has taken over this offense, brought them to new heights, and is returning for next year, along with running back Kewan Lacy. Players are still buying into this program without Kiffin, and that should be a huge morale boost going forward. Plus, do we really trust Carson Beck?
He hasn't had to win Miami a game this season. They've been dominant on the run and on the defensive side of the ball, but in this game, they are going to have to put up some points. Beck has only thrown the ball 35 times twice this year. Against Louisville in their three point loss where he threw four interceptions, and against SMU in their overtime loss where he threw two picks.
This is not the Carson Beck we saw at Georgia. He is not that good, and certainly not clutch enough to keep this miracle run going for a team that didn't deserve to be in the playoff to begin with.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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