#10 Miami (FL) vs. SMU Prediction & Best Bets (11/1): Will the Mustangs Stomp Out the Canes’ CFP Hopes?

Written by: Eddie Griffin

Last Update: Wed Oct 29, 2025, 4:57 pm ET

Read Time: 7 minutes

Kevin Jennings and SMU take on the Arizona Wildcats in the Holiday Bowl tonight - SMU Arizona Picks

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Miami Hurricanes

SMU Mustangs

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Last season, late-season upset losses at Georgia Tech and Syracuse saw Miami miss out on both the ACC title game and College Football Playoff. This season's Miami vs. SMU showdown (12:00 p.m. ET, ESPN) will not have the stakes that last season's conference championship clash would have, but it does serve as a must-win matchup, and not just for the 10^th-ranked Hurricanes.

After being stunned by Louisville at home two weeks ago, Miami (6-1, 2-1 ACC) bounced back last week with a 42-7 win over Stanford. It wasn't all smooth sailing for the Canes, who trailed after a quarter and found themselves tied with the Cardinal at halftime before a standout second half saw them home.

This week, they leave the state of Florida for the first time all season and play on the road for just the second time as they visit the Mustangs (5-3, 3-1 ACC), who are coming off of a rather unsightly showing in a 13-12 loss at Wake Forest.

The loss dropped SMU from the ranks of the unbeaten in the ACC, which is currently placed by #8 Georgia Tech (8-0, 5-0 ACC) and #15 Virginia (7-1, 4-0 ACC), a possibility literally not even Nostradamus would have foreseen in Week Zero.

With no ranked teams ahead for either the Yellow Jackets or Cavaliers, both teams may be hard to dislodge from the top. But if there are any upsets, the winner of Saturday's matchup at Gerald J. Ford Stadium could benefit.

Who will that be? Read on for our Miami vs. SMU prediction and best bets, which are accompanied by the best odds from top online sportsbooks such as BetOnline.

Miami vs. SMU Betting Trends

Miami is 5-2 against the spread this season, including 1-0 ATS as a road favorite and 4-2 ATS overall as a favorite.
The Hurricanes are 9-3 SU and 6-6 ATS as a road favorite under Mario Cristobal.
The under is 4-3 in Miami's games this season.
The over hit in Miami's last game, a 42-7 win over Stanford. The under in the game following each of the previous two overs this season.
SMU is 2-6 against the spread this season, including 1-1 as an underdog.
The Mustangs are 4-9 SU and 5-8 ATS as an underdog under Rhett Lashlee.
The under is 6-2 in SMU's games this season, including 3-1 in the Mustangs' home games.

Miami vs. SMU Prediction and Best Bets

Prediction: SMU to win

Should consecutive slow starts by the Hurricanes raise the alarm bell? After outscoring opponents 97-19 in the first half in their first five games, the switch has flipped in the wrong direction in the last two games.

After falling behind Louisville 14-0, they trailed 7-0 against Stanford and did not get on the board until 1:23 remained in the first half.

That began a game-ending run of six unanswered touchdowns, so all's well that ends well, right? But in one of their toughest remaining games, Miami will want to avoid a slow start vs. SMU.

That is even though the Mustangs are a much different team than they were last season.

After averaging 37.8 points per game and 429.5 yards per game last season, the Mustangs are averaging 31.0 PPG and 388 yards per game thus far this season.

The ground game has a drop-off with Brashard Smith now in the NFL, and quarterback Kevin Jennings is averaging 0.7 less per pass attempt (8.5 in 2024 to 7.8 YPA in 2025). He also has not offered the same running threat as he did last season, with only 32 net rushing yards (4.0 per game) after averaging 25.9 net rushing yards per game last season.

At Wake Forest, SMU lost at the horn despite five takeaways, as they tallied only 246 total yards, turned the ball over three times, missed on a fourth-down conversion, and failed to get a first-down that would have run out of the clock on their last offensive drive.

But other than non-conference losses to Baylor and TCU, SMU's defense has played pretty well for the most part this season.

NCAA FBS Stats for SMU in the 2025 Season

Takeaways: 20 (1^st)
Interceptions: 12 (t-4^th)
Fumbles Recovered: 8 (t-4^th)
Rushing Yards Allowed Per Attempt: 2.79 (11^th)
Rushing Yards Allowed Game: 95.5 (t-15^th)
Sacks: 25 (t-9^th)
Sacks Per Game: 3.12 (t-10^th)
Tackles for Loss: 54 (t-18^th)
Tackles for Loss Per Game: 6.8 (t-25^th)

SMU has a defense that can cause some strife vs. Miami. Carson Beck has been sacked only four times this season and not more than once in a game, but he didn't exactly rebound from his four-pick performance against Louisville with a stellar showing against Stanford (21 for 28, 189 yards, TD, no INT).

If SMU can keep Mark Fletcher Jr. (23 carries, 106 yards, 3 TD vs. Stanford) at bay and bother Beck, the Mustangs are very capable of coming away with the win vs. Miami if Jennings can play turnover-free ball. That has happened in only one game this season (against Stanford), but upping that number could prove key to an upset and new life for their hopes of a second straight trip to the ACC title game.

Miami vs. SMU Best Bets

1) SMU +12.5 (-110 at Bovada)

The Mustangs were abysmal offensive in their loss at Wake Forest. That left the door open for the Demon Deacons to complete the pass they needed to set up a game-winning field goal in the final seconds. That was one of the few times the defense put a foot wrong in Winston-Salem.

But there's no way the Hurricanes should be favored by nearly two touchdowns. Yes, they have some impressive results this season, but they appear to have hit a little midseason lull, and an 11 a.m. CT game on the road against a decent team is a recipe for potential disaster.

At the very least, SMU should be able to keep stay close enough to cover. For a little extra protection, buy out to +13 or even +13.5 (or even +14 if you care more about protection than potential profit). I don't think it will be needed, but there's no harm whatsoever in exercising caution.

2) SMU ML (+355 at Everygame)

This may come off as a bit of a bold choice, but I feel rather confident in SMU's chances. They appear to be catching Miami at the right time of the season, and they should have a little extra fire after that dud at Wake Forest (and with the knowledge that they many do not expect them to win).

3) Miami/SMU Under 51 (-110 at BetOnline)

If SMU is to pull the upset vs. Miami, it will be more because of defense than offense. Taking Miami's team total (which can be found at 30.5) may be a better option with that in mind, but with the number at 50.5 elsewhere, this is an excellent play if you believe in SMU like I do.

Final Word on Miami vs. SMU

Miami ranks 11^th nationally in total defense (270.4 yards allowed per game), 14^th in scoring defense (14.1 PPG allowed per game), and 10^th in yards allowed per play (4.37), and that may dissuade many from backing an SMU team that had an awful afternoon offensively at Wake Forest.

It doesn't throw me off, however. Lest we forget, this SMU team still has some major players from a team that was pretty darn good last year. That includes Jennings, who can use this matchup to be the catalyst for a strong finish to his season.

Also, this will be an opportunity for SMU running back Chris Johnson Jr., a Miami transfer, to show out against his former team. After making some key contributions against Stanford and Clemson, Johnson had only 29 yards on eight carries and one catch for one yard at Wake Forest. But for the season, he is averaging 7.5 yards per carry and 12.5 yards per catch this season and may have some extra eagerness to really make the most of his touches this week.

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Eddie Griffin

Eddie Griffin has been writing about and betting on sports for over a decade and has been with Betting News since 2021. For more of his thoughts on sports and sports betting, you can follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter.

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