Rebels Head to Swamp Off Big Win: #4 Ole Miss vs. #21 Florida Expert Picks (9/26)
Written by: Nate Hornung
Last Update: Thu Sep 24, 2026, 3:53 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
ncaaf
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+3.5
-110
59
-110u
+147
Spread
Total
Moneyline
-3.0
-115
59
-110o
-165
The Ole Miss Rebels might've just won their personal National Championship. Their ex-Head Coach, none other than Lane Kiffin, came back to Oxford, and the Rebels gave him a proper middle finger, beating the No. 7 LSU Tigers in a top 20 matchup. Now Trinidad Chambliss and company find themselves as a field goal underdog on the road against a ranked SEC opponent. Will he find a way to stay undefeated against the No. 21 Florida Gators in Gainesville? Find out with our expert picks below.
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NCAA Football Expert Insights: #4 Ole Miss Rebels vs. #21 Florida Gators
Jadan Baugh has 458 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns already this season, second in yards and tied for most TDs in the country
Now, the Rebels aren't the only team coming off an emotional win. Florida was a two point favorite at Auburn last week, beating the Tigers 44-39, prompting the AP voters to rank them this week. But Vegas also respects the hosts, making them a 1.5 point favorite at opening, which quickly took some Gator money and steamed to the current number. There are flat threes and 3.5s out there. Feels like a real easy let down spot for the Rebels, but to me, they proved they are legit.
My football brain wants to take Ole Miss. Chambliss already beat a Jon Sumrall led squad in the College Football Playoff last season, the Rebels defense held strong against an LSU offense that was scoring 48 points per game, and ultimately, I think they are the much more well rounded football team, compared to the one from Gainesville. With all that being said, my football brain can't quite get their, because my betting brain knows Florida is probably favored for a reason. So instead I'll take an alternate route.
Matchup Information – Ole Miss vs. Florida – September 26
- Venue & Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium (Gainesville, FL)
- Date: Saturday, September 26, 2026
- Kick Off: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
- Broadcast: ABC
Rebels vs. Gators Betting Odds
Odds listed are from BetOnline as of Thursday, September 24, 2026 at 2:43 p.m. eastern.
Spread
- Ole Miss +3 (-102)
- Florida -3 (-122)
Moneyline
- Ole Miss +147
- Florida -167
Total
- Over 59 (-110)
- Under 59 (-110)
#4 Ole Miss vs. #21 Florida: NCAA Football Expert Picks
Trinidad Chambliss has thrown for 300 yards in over 62% of his games as an Ole Miss starter
Ole Miss vs. Florida Prediction: Ole Miss Wins Outright, Over 59
Best Bets: Trinidad Chambliss Over 289.5 Passing Yards (-116) BetOnline
You can find this line for a slightly better price than I, but I see him soaring over this number. If you take him to have 300+, please make sure you are getting plus money. The Rebels' quarterback has cleared 300+ passing yards in 10/16 games as a starter at Ole Miss, including two of three this year. He is averaging over 35 pass attempts per game, and had 336 passing yards on just 21 completions against Louisville to start the year. They are going into a bye week, so I'm sure Pete Golding will have his team ready to go in their first true road game.
Now, like I said, the books suggest the Gators control and win this game. If that's the case, Chambliss is going to be slinging the pill trying to catch up and score quickly. He's proven he can do it with big completions, having at least a 30 yard pass in all three games this year, and in 13/17 games at the Division 1 level.
What About Florida's Defense?
For starters, last year in the CFP, Chambliss torched Sumrall's Green Wave defense for 282 passing yards on 23 completions and 29 attempts in a blowout. In a close game, I expect him to throw more.
The Gators allowed Caden Veltkamp of FAU to go for 276 passing yards on 52 attempts. The man was always dropping back. But even Byrum Brown of Auburn had 271 yards on just 35 attempts. Trinidad Chambliss is a MUCH better pocket passer than Brown, and at least as big of a threat with his legs. He should have no issue clearing this line, especially if Florida keeps it close like the books suggest.
But my brain tells me it's Ole Miss -3.5 (+209).
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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