After suffering seven straight losses, the Nittany Lions look to tonight to finally secure their first win of the 2026 calendar year. On the other side, the Wildcats are also trying to turn things around, having won just one of their last seven games. Both teams are struggling to find consistency, and this matchup has defensive rock fight written all over it.
Leans & Bets
If I had to pick a side in this game, I would lean Northwestern. The Wildcats hold an advantage across the board on Haslametrics, and they have nothing to look ahead to with Washington coming to town on Saturday. Given the way they have been playing, they cannot afford to overlook this spot. That said, the under is the play I like most. The pace should be slow with little sense of urgency, as both teams prefer a moderate tempo. Northwestern ranks 250th in tempo at home this season, per Bart Torvik. Meanwhile, Penn State sits 206th in tempo through eight road games.
Northwestern has been very solid on the defensive end all season. The Wildcats rank 72nd in eFG%, 45th in three point defense, and do a strong job limiting opponent three point attempts, ranking 170th in three-point attempt defense. On top of that, Northwestern ranks 101st in block percentage defense.
This defense should be more than capable of slowing down a Penn State offense that ranks 214th in eFG% over its last ten games. The Nittany Lions also sit in the bottom 100 in offensive rebounding, free throw rate offense, block percentage, and three-point percentage during that same stretch.
Overall, Penn State has managed to keep several of its top 100 matchups competitive, but it has fallen short in all nine such games this season. Defense has been the biggest issue. While it may seem counterintuitive to back an under with a team ranked 263rd in eFG% defense against top 100 opponents, the projected pace of this game changes the equation. If the Nittany Lions want to stay competitive, they will need to elevate their defensive effort.
Two desperate teams looking to get back on track before the first month of the new year comes to a close, this game sets up for defenses to take control. Under.
