For a Monday, this slate is pretty solid, featuring a couple of ranked games, while still offering a handful of top 100 matchups. Tonight at Assembly Hall, the Hoosiers host a struggling Oregon Ducks team that has not felt the rush of a win since January 2. The Ducks are looking to avoid their tenth straight loss, while the Hoosiers aim to win their fourth game over their last six. Can the double digit road dogs keep it close this evening? Time to dive in.
Despite my original lean with the Ducks at +11.5, I think this number will continue to creep down. Indiana is currently favored by 10.5 points. I want under ten to pounce on the hometown Hoosiers this evening. If it does not get there, I will likely take the over on Indiana team total.
Trust the Numbers
It is tough for me to look at Indiana being the 37th best team at home, taking on the 313th team away from home, and want to back the Ducks, especially with the number creeping down. Away from home this season against top 100 teams, Oregon is 0-8 straight up. Their defense falls apart, ranking 205th in adjusted efficiency. They sit bottom 100 in perimeter defense and turnover defense. Offensively, they rank 202nd in eFG%, 286th in three-point percentage, and 206th in turnover percentage. Away from home this season, the Ducks are barely putting up 69 points per game.
On the other side, the Hoosiers are putting up nearly 84 points per game at home. Through six home games during Big Ten play, they own the number one offense in the conference. In addition to that, Indiana ranks top three in eFG% offense, offensive block percentage, two-point percentage, and three-point percentage. Defensively, they have not been overly impressive in conference play. However, they still rank 44th in adjusted defensive efficiency, excelling at attacking the glass and guarding the interior.
Despite the tempo leaning toward the slower side, with how dominant Indiana has been at home this season and how absent Oregon has been on the road, it is tough for me to pass up backing the Hoosiers in some form this evening.
