Green Bay vs. Youngstown State: Odds & Best Bets | January 22, 2026
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Update: Thu Jan 22, 2026, 3:13 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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Last 7 Days: 8-5 (+2.46 Units)
Last 30 Days: 25-27 (-5.98 Units)
Full fade!!!
Green Bay vs. Youngstown State Odds
Should Youngstown State be favored by seven points tonight?
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Spread
Green Bay: +7.0 (-109)
Youngstown State: -7.0 (-111)
Total
Over: 140.5 (-109)
Under: 140.5 (-111)
Moneyline
Green Bay: +245
Youngstown State: -315
Green Bay vs. Youngstown State Bet
The best day of the week, Friday Junior, a day for the mid-majors to shine and grab some attention. This evening, two Horizon League teams coming off losses in their previous matchups go head to head. Green Bay heads to Ohio to take on the Youngstown State Penguins. After suffering their sixth straight loss to a Division One opponent, the Penguins find themselves listed as a seven-point favorite over the Phoenix. Is this line too high for a team that is 2-7 in conference play this season, or is this a coming out party for Youngstown State?
It is hard for me to feel confident about this play when I have spent the last year and a half dogging Green Bay head coach, Doug Gottlieb for hosting a radio show while coaching a Division One basketball team. I was still wondering which one was the side job. Nonetheless, Gottlieb has since stepped down from his Fox Sports Radio show and is now fully dedicated to this program, and that is where my confidence comes into play. This evening, I will be taking the Phoenix at +7 over the Penguins.
Trust the Numbers
After rattling off a five-game winning streak, Green Bay fell to Oakland in its last game, an 88 to 63 loss that marked its worst defeat since falling to Wright State on December 7th. Through nine conference games this season, the Phoenix have been rather impressive. They rank top three in adjusted defensive efficiency, effective field goal percentage offense, free throw rate offense, free throw percentage, three-point defense, defensive rebounding, and both two and three-point shooting percentage. They are a solid group within the Horizon.
Haslametrics projects Green Bay to lose by five this evening, but it also gives the Phoenix significant advantages across multiple metrics. One category I always lean on is strength of schedule, where Green Bay sits 129 spots ahead of the Penguins. They also hold a massive edge in momentum. Haslametrics notes, "Green Bay has the advantage in this category, as Youngstown State has not been playing up to its norm as of late, nationally ranked 345th in positive momentum." Green Bay is also 67 spots ahead of Youngstown State in away home court metrics.
On the other side, the Penguins have struggled mightily in conference play. Through nine Horizon League games, they rank bottom three in offensive and defensive effective field goal percentage, turnover percentage offense, free throw rate offense and defense, three-point percentage offense, three-point defense, and free throw percentage. They have been abysmal.
Should the large number concern me, especially with this shaping up as a potential get right spot for Youngstown State after six straight losses to Division One teams, excluding a January ninth win over a non D1 opponent? Sure. Still, I am willing to trust the numbers and believe Green Bay can keep this game close and competitive this evening.
Best Bet: Green Bay +7 (-109) on Lucky Rebel
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd and has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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