Florida Atlantic vs. Memphis: Odds & Predictions | January 29, 2026
Written by: Colby Marchio
Published: Thu Jan 29, 2026, 10:32 am ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Florida Atlantic vs. Memphis Odds
Can the Owls sweep the Tigers?
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Spread
Florida Atlantic: +2.0 (-116)
Memphis: -2.0 (-105)
Total
Over: 151.5 (-115)
Under: 151.5 (-105)
Moneyline
Florida Atlantic: +105
Memphis: -128
Florida Atlantic vs. Memphis Bet
We have ourselves a good old fashioned revenge spot between these two American Athletic Conference rivals, as the FAU Owls already took down the Memphis Tigers just two weeks ago inside their home gym, 89 to 78, as a short favorite. Now the question becomes, does FAU have what it takes to sweep Memphis this season, or will the Tigers get their revenge back at home?
It is the Tigers for me in this spot. For starters, look at the number. The Owls beat Memphis by 11 inside their home gym while favored by 1.5 points in that game. Now, the line has flipped entirely. I am not a big "the line is telling you everything" guy, but I am willing to lean into that angle this evening. On top of that, Memphis is one of the best teams in the country at home, per Haslametrics. Meanwhile, FAU ranks 38th worst in away home court metrics.
Trust the Numbers
Erik Haslam on the away-home court advantage Memphis has, "We would expect a potential performance bump for the home team here. Memphis has performed far better at home than they have away from home this season. To boot, they are facing FAU, a team that has played their very worst basketball this year away from their home court."
The numbers back it up as well. Through 10 home games this season, the Tigers defense jumps from 29th best in the country to 12th best. Overall, they excel at forcing turnovers, guarding the perimeter, and blocking shots. Their offense is the biggest red flag, but as your father once said when you were eight-years old, "defense wins championships." Every bet is my championship, so I will gladly back a defensive juggernaut. That said, the Memphis offense does have some bright spots, most notably ranking 49th in offensive rebounding. Against top 100 teams, the Tigers improve significantly at scoring inside and getting to the free throw line.
Away from home, the Owls offense takes a major dive. They go from the 79th best effective field goal percentage to 276th. They have been atrocious from beyond the arc, shooting just 26.3% from deep, despite not even relying on the 3 ball, where they rank 246th in 3 point rate. Defensively, FAU is middle of the pack. They do a solid job of clogging the lanes, but Memphis is the fourth best team in the conference at attacking the glass.
Overall, this feels like the perfect spot for Penny Hardaway and his group to get back on track, earn their revenge against the Owls, and secure another conference win. The Tigers are coming off a 74 to 59 road loss to Wichita State this past weekend, where they shot 40% from the floor and 15% from deep. Hopefully, it is only up from here.
Best Bet: Memphis Moneyline (-128) on Lucky Rebel
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd and has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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