When Baylor and Kansas State met the first time this season, the Bears and Wildcats played out an overtime thriller in Waco, which ended with K-State eking out a 97-95 win.

Is another classic in store tonight when as #9 Baylor and #14 Kansas State battle it out at Bramlage Coliseum?

The Bears (20-7, 9-5 Big 12) are coming off of an 87-71 loss at Kansas on Saturday, which dealt a big blow to their Big 12 regular season title hopes.

They aren’t out of the running with KU still only a game and a half ahead, but to keep their hopes alive into Saturday’s tussle with Texas, a win in Manhattan is needed.

Will the Wildcats defend their home court and snuff out Baylor’s conference championships chances? Read on for our Baylor vs Kansas State prediction, as well as our picks for one of tonight’s top college basketball games.

Baylor vs Kansas State Odds

Odds are via FanDuel as of Tuesday, February 21, 2023, at 2:00 am ET. This article may also include odds from our other recommended legal sports betting sites.

Spread

• Baylor -2.5 (-106)
• Kansas State +2.5 (-114)

Over/Under

• Over 145.5 (-115)
• Under 145.5 (-105)

Moneyline

• Baylor -134
• Kansas State +112

Will Baylor Be Undone from the Perimeter Again Against Kansas State?

In the first meeting on January 7, Baylor was +11 from the foul line and +5 in the rebound column.

But it was Kansas State who came away with the win thanks to Ismael Massoud’s go-ahead three-pointer late in the extra period.

It was one of 11 three-pointers that the Wildcats made in that matchup, as they shot 44% (11 of 25) from outside and 53.1% (34 of 64) from the field overall. Baylor, however, shot just 32% (8 of 25) from three, and the Bears shot 44.6% (29 of 65) overall.

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Can the Wildcats repeat their shooting success in the rematch?

Only five opponents this season have shot 40% or better from three against the Bears, and K-State and Iowa State–who made 43.5% of their threes (10 of 23) in a 77-62 home win on New Year’s Eve–are the only two teams to do so in conference play.

K-State hasn’t made 10+ threes in a game since their win in Waco, and they have shot 40% or better from three only twice more, in their upset of Kansas (7 of 17, 41.2%) and in a four-point loss at Iowa State (9 of 16, 56.3%).

They don’t have to shoot the three that well to break out the broom against the Bears, but if the Wildcats can have a decent game offensively, they are likely to get the win.

This season, Kansas State has scored 70+ points 14 times. Of those 14 games, they have the win in all but two games, with an 80-76 loss at Iowa State and a 90-78 loss at Kansas the only two blemishes. By comparison, Baylor is 5-7 this season when they have allowed 70+ points.

Baylor vs Kansas State Prediction and Picks

Bears vs Wildcats Prediction: Kansas State to win

Bears vs Wildcats Picks: Kansas State +2.5 (Best Value: FanDuel) & Kansas State ML (Best Value: FanDuel & BetRivers)

Baylor is 4-3 on the road in Big 12 action, with wins over West Virginia, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and TCU and losses to Iowa State, Texas, and Kansas.

But as I have noted multiple times recently, winning on the road is tough to do in college basketball. K-State is 6-1 at home in conference play, losing only to Texas by three on February 4.

I don’t think things will go as they did at Allen Fieldhouse on Saturday, as the Bears built a 40-23 lead in the first half only to be outscored 64-31 the rest of the way. But I love the value with the home team here as an underdog, which I don’t feel that they should be at this point.

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