#9 Michigan State vs. #13 Nebraska Game Preview

Friday night college basketball does not get much better than this. Ranked teams, national attention, and a Big Ten showdown with all the ingredients for chaos. An undefeated home squad riding confidence, a blue blood walking into a hostile environment, and a number that immediately makes you stop and look twice. Before the weekend officially begins, this game deserves a deeper look. Let us break down why this matchup sets up far differently than what the surface tells you.

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#9 Michigan State vs. #13 Nebraska Odds

Can Michigan State handle Nebraska on the road?

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Spread

Michigan State: +2.5 (-105)

Nebraska: -2.5 (-115)

Total

Over: 145.5 (-115)

Under: 145.5 (-105)

Moneyline

Michigan State: N/A

Nebraska: N/A

#9 Michigan State vs. #13 Nebraska Bet

One of the biggest games on this marvelous Friday night college basketball slate. We are getting absolutely spoiled this week and it is not even Saturday yet. No. 9 Michigan State heads to Lincoln to take on an undefeated No. 13 Nebraska team. The Spartans are coming off a win over Cornell earlier in the week, while the Cornhuskers demolished New Hampshire on Tuesday. With Michigan State being one of the most battle tested teams in the country, will Nebraska have the juice to keep their perfect record intact? I have thoughts…

Living on Cloud 9

I love nothing more than knowing Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo likely tore his boys a new one after Cornell kept it close for the majority of the game on Monday. The Spartans did end up winning 114 to 97, but they failed to cover the 24.5-point spread. Why do I think Izzo most likely laid into his team? I am only assuming, but the last time a mid-major team kept it close with the Spartans was November 3, the first game of the season against Colgate. The Raiders covered the 21-point spread but lost 80 to 69. After that game, Izzo was not pleased in the postgame interview. Michigan State then hosted Arkansas five days later, won the game, and covered the short spread against a very good Razorbacks team. I think Friday night's matchup will be very similar, except now we get a 2.5-point cushion.

On the other side, the Cornhuskers are coming off destroying New Hampshire 86 to 55 on Tuesday. Nebraska did cover the opening line of 30.5, so maybe they were not looking ahead as much as the Spartans. Regardless, the unbeaten Cornhuskers are due for some regression, as they have been on a tear since the beginning of the season. Their most notable win came at Illinois, where they beat the Fighting Illini 83 to 80. In that matchup, Nebraska was nearly ten point underdogs. Despite that big win, the Cornhuskers have not been as battle tested as the Spartans, who have endured the 39th toughest schedule in the country compared to Nebraska's 155th. According to Haslametrics, Michigan State holds the edge in away home court metrics, consistency, and strength of schedule.

Keys to Success

Nebraska has been nothing short of impressive, maintaining a top 50 offense and defense. However, they struggle in a few areas that the Spartans should benefit from. The Cornhuskers rank 281st in free throw rate offense and 248th in offensive rebounding. Meanwhile, Michigan State does not send opponents to the line, ranking 59th in free throw rate defense. They are also the third best defensive rebounding team in the nation.

Overall, the Spartans defense should be able to hold down this explosive Cornhuskers offense. Michigan State against top 100 teams owns the fourth best defense in the country, along with a top ten effective field goal percentage. They rank 18th in three point defense and 51st in two point defense. Izzo's boys have also won every game they have played away from home this season, taking down Kentucky, East Carolina, North Carolina, Penn State, and Oakland. Away from home, Bart Torvik has them ranked top ten in adjusted defensive efficiency, effective field goal percentage defense, defensive rebounding, defensive block percentage, and three point percentage.

This will easily be the toughest test of the season for the Cornhuskers, and I think the Spartans being 2.5 point underdogs is a misprice. If you are feeling dangerous and want to start the weekend early, take them to win outright. I always lean toward taking the points. It is college basketball, and things get crazy. Go Sparty!