#24 USC vs. #9 Michigan State Betting Analysis

Monday night brings a Big Ten clash in East Lansing as Michigan State hosts USC with both teams looking to bounce back. The Spartans are coming off a sloppy road loss at Nebraska, a game defined by turnovers and missed opportunities. USC arrives after being handled by top ranked Michigan and now is put in another tough environment away from home. Tom Izzo teams typically respond well in this spot, especially defensively and on the glass. Michigan State should find chances at the free throw line and inside the arc. USC has talent, but recent road results against quality opponents have been concerning. This sets up as a strong spot for the Spartans.

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#24 USC vs. #9 Michigan State Odds

The Spartans committed 17 turnovers in their loss to Nebraska on Friday. How will they respond on Monday night?

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Spread

USC: +9.5 (-102)

Michigan State: -9.5 (-120)

Total

Over: 148.5 (-115)

Under: 148.5 (-105)

Moneyline

USC: +450

Michigan State: -630

#24 USC vs. #9 Michigan State Bet

Two top 25 Big Ten teams are coming off tough road losses in their previous matchups. On Friday, the USC Trojans lost to top ranked Michigan by 30 and now have to pack it up and head to East Lansing to take on the Michigan State Spartans, who are also coming off a tough road loss to Nebraska. Who is in the bigger bounceback spot? Let us dive in.

The Spartans are coming off one of the sloppiest games I have seen in a long time from a Tom Izzo led team. On Friday, they turned the ball over 17 times and still somehow almost managed to beat the Cornhuskers. On the season, Michigan State ranks 232nd in turnover offense, but this feels like an area that can be cleaned up on Monday night. USC is not elite at forcing turnovers, and they are not on the same level as Nebraska in that department.

I was very passionate about the Spartans potentially taking down the Cornhuskers after a sloppy performance against Cornell, expecting Izzo to let them hear it. Luckily, they still covered Friday night against Nebraska. Still, having a chance to win while getting crushed in the turnover battle is wild. I fully expect Izzo to have his group sharper offensively and taking better care of the ball at home against USC.

Keys to Success

There are a few key areas Michigan State should be able to exploit on Monday evening. One is attacking the glass. The Trojans rank 224th in two point percentage defense away from home. They also sit 179th in free throw rate defense and 237th overall this season. Michigan State is a top 100 free throw rate offense at home, which should matter in this spot.

USC has faced plenty of teams inside the top 100 and currently owns a 5-2 record in those games. That said, Michigan State has navigated the tougher path. Haslametrics ranks the Spartans 20th in strength of schedule, while USC sits 35th. Michigan State owns wins over Arkansas, Kentucky, North Carolina, and Iowa, with losses coming against Duke and Nebraska. USC best win came against Seton Hall back in November. In their last two road games against top 100 teams, the Trojans lost by a combined 38 points. I think Izzo and his group are in a great position to cover the 9.5 on Monday night at home after a brutal loss in Lincoln.

Go Sparty!