Massive Big Ten matchup going down at the Barn, as No. 10 Michigan State heads to Minneapolis to take on a struggling Golden Gophers team that has lost seven straight. Meanwhile, the Spartans are coming off their first loss since January 2. Who will come out of this one back in the win column? This should be one of the more enthralling games of the evening. Let us get into it.
We have seen it time and time again with this Minnesota team. They fight hard early and fall apart in the second half. The Barn is always a tough place to play, and the Golden Gophers consistently show up at home. However, I am not risking the full game spread backing Minnesota. I want the first half +4.5.
Homebody Gophers
Despite their recent struggles, the Golden Gophers are ranked seventh in away home court metrics, according to Haslametrics. On the other side, the Spartans are ranked 117th. Erik Haslam states, "Michigan State has performed better away from home this year than they have at home. Unfortunately for them, they face Minnesota, who has played their very best basketball this season in front of their home crowd."
Inside the Barn, Minnesota owns the 16th best defense in the country. They excel at forcing turnovers, attacking the glass, defending the perimeter, and protecting the paint. Offensively, they struggle at the free throw line and with shots getting blocked. However, they are very efficient on the boards and at drawing fouls, which is huge if they convert at the line.
Through five true road games, the Spartans have had issues protecting the basketball and forcing turnovers, ranking in the bottom 45 nationally in those areas. If the Golden Gophers can take advantage of those ball security problems, they should be able to turn turnovers into points.
Some may argue this is a get right spot for the Spartans after losing to Michigan at home on Friday. However, there is also an argument that they come out sluggish after being so focused on their in state rival, only to fall short. If that is the case, Minnesota should benefit from a sleep walking Michigan State team.
If you are not a fan of first half spreads, I still endorse the +8.5. With Michigan State likely still recovering from Friday's loss, this sets up as a strong spot for Minnesota. On top of that, the Spartans host Illinois on Saturday, putting them in a classic sandwich spot.
