The Thunder remain without last year's league MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, along with Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell. Despite the absences, OKC has won three straight and five of its last eight games since SGA went down.
On the flip side, Detroit remains without big man Isaiah Stewart, who will serve the fifth game of his seven-game suspension for his involvement in the fight against the Charlotte Hornets on February 9.
Is Stewart's absence something that should carry significant weight in our handicap? Probably not.
He owns an efficiency differential of -8.9, one of the worst marks on the roster, and his expected wins metric sits at -18. In other words, based on that efficiency profile, a team would project well below .500 across an 82-game season.
That is not to say he has not been impactful. Stewart is still averaging 10 points, five rebounds and 1.7 blocks in 23.3 minutes per game. He provides a physical presence down low and serves as an enforcer, which is valuable for a team built around skilled scorers.
Still, given Oklahoma City's current roster situation, his absence is unlikely to be a deciding factor in this matchup.
Speaking of which, it is worth noting how the Thunder have fared metrically without SGA.
For the full season, Oklahoma City ranks fourth in offensive points per possession and fifth in effective field goal percentage. Defensively, the Thunder rank first in points per possession allowed and second in eFG% allowed.
In the eight games without SGA, those numbers have dipped. OKC ranks 13th in offensive points per possession and 11th in offensive eFG%, while falling to seventh in defensive points per possession and 11th in eFG% allowed.
Still a solid profile, but nowhere near as dominant, which is to be expected when you take away a league MVP from the lineup.
I fully expect the Pistons to bounce back and win this game, but I'm not thrilled about laying -8, especially after the market has already shifted nearly three points. Instead, I'll wait to see if a better in-game number pops on Detroit.
Where I do have some action, per usual, is in the prop market.
Thunder vs Pistons Best Bets
Tobias Harris Over 4.5 Rebounds (-160)
In his last seven games, Tobias Harris has been a rebounding machine, averaging 7.6 boards per game in that span, collecting over 4.5 in all seven contests.
After Jalen Duren and Isaiah Stewart's suspension, he collected 12 and 10 boards respectively in the next two games, but even with Duren's resurgance to the roster, Harris still snagged six and eight the two games aftewrads.
With Stewart still out, and a top-tier Pistons defense faving a banged-up OKC offense, this will be another great opportunity to take advantege of a buy-low spot on Harris' rebounding efforts.
Isaiah Joe Under 15.5 Points (-115)
It's time to sell high on Isaiah Joe.
In the month of February, he's averaging 16.6 points per game. Since SGA went out, Joe has scored 16 or more in six of eight games. Prior to this recent surge, the highest monthly average he posted was 12.5 points back in November. For the season as a whole, he's still at just 11 points per game.
Some regression should be coming, especially against a Pistons defense that ranks first in effective field goal percentage allowed and second in points per possession allowed. Furthermore, 75 percent of Joe's shot attempts come from beyond the arc, and Detroit ranks third in opponent three-point percentage.
The Pistons should be able to contain him and keep him under 15.5 points tonight.
Best Bets:
NBA Record: 127-102-1 (+14.2 units)
