Nuggets vs. Mavericks Betting (Nov. 18): Denver Can’t Overcome Lack of Jokic, Murray

Devon Platana

As the 2022-23 NBA season continues, the Western Conference is in action when the Denver Nuggets and Dallas Mavericks meet on Friday, Nov. 18. It’s always a thrill any time that the two talented teams are involved in a game together, making tonight’s Nuggets vs Mavericks showdown one of the top games to watch.

The Nuggets enter this game having lost 106-103 to the New York Knicks on Wednesday night. While Denver has the talent to bounce back from that loss, it’ll be easier said than done as the team is set to be without top players Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic after the duo was placed into health and safety protocol.

Meanwhile, the Mavericks also hope to find some success after losing, 101-92, to the lowly Houston Rockets two nights ago. A big cause behind the loss is that Dallas was without star player Luka Doncic, who was given the night off for some rest. Only time will tell if he’s rested enough to get his team the win tonight.

There’s a lot to take in before Friday’s Nuggets vs Mavericks game. Fortunately, Betting News has gathered the game’s odds while also having a prediction and best bet for tonight’s contest.

Denver Nuggets vs Dallas Mavericks Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

  • Matchup: Denver Nuggets (9-5, 5-4 Away) vs. Dallas Mavericks (8-6, 7-2 Home)
  • Venue & Location: American Airlines Center (Dallas, Texas)
  • Date: Friday, Nov. 18, 2022
  • Game Time: 8:30 p.m. Eastern Time
  • Nuggets vs Mavericks Info: NBA League Pass, Bally Sports Southwest, Altitude Sports and Entertainment

Nuggets vs Mavericks Odds

Game odds are via FanDuel as of Friday, Nov. 18 at 8:28 a.m. ET. Odds from other top online sportsbooks may also be mentioned in this article.

Spread

  • Denver Nuggets +8.5 (-110)
  • Dallas Mavericks -8.5 (-110)

Over/Under

  • Over 216.5 Points (-108)
  • Under 216.5 Points (-112)

Moneyline

  • Denver Nuggets +310
  • Dallas Mavericks -390

Denver Nuggets vs Dallas Mavericks Betting Trends

  • Denver is 4-10 straight up in its last 14 road games against Dallas.
  • Dallas is 6-3 straight up in its last nine games.
  • Denver is 1-4 against the spread (ATS) in its last five games.
  • Dallas is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games against Denver.
  • The total has hit the under in four of Denver’s last six games.
  • The total has hit the under in four of Dallas’ last six games.

Denver Nuggets vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction and Picks

Nuggets vs Mavericks Prediction: Mavericks 111, Nuggets 102

Nuggets vs Mavericks Picks: Mavericks -8.5 (Best Value: -110 at FanDuel) & Under 216.5 Points (Best Value: -108 at FanDuel)

No Jokic could mean some big problems for the Nuggets. Since making his NBA debut in 2015, Denver is 11-18 straight up whenever the Serbian superstar is absent.

While that’s “only” seven games below .500, the Nuggets have actually dropped seven of the last eight games that Jokic has missed. Furthermore, they were held to 109 or fewer points in six of those losses.

Though Jokic’s 20.8 points per game are noticeably below his 27.1 PPG clip from last season, it’s still the highest rate on the 2022-23 Nuggets. With Murray’s 16.5 PPG ranking third-best on the team, it looks like Denver has quite the uphill battle ahead of them.

Being without the aforementioned duo will make it tough for the Nuggets to counter Doncic. The Slovenian stud has averaged an NBA-leading 34.4 points through his first 13 games, doing so on a career-high 60.4% true shooting percentage.

Can Luka Doncic continue his hot 2022-23 start against the Nuggets?

If that wasn’t impressive on its own, Doncic has averaged a 24.4-point, 10.5-assist double-double in 11 career games against the Nuggets. Though Denver has kept him to 21 or fewer points in three of the last four meetings, it’s hard imagining that trend continuing with the hot streak that the 23-year-old is on — especially after his day of rest.

It’s also worth mentioning that the Mavericks have won 10 of their last 14 home games against the Nuggets. Denver has been held to 101 or fewer points in three of its last four trips to American Airlines Center, which is a trend I can see continuing since Dallas has the best home defense in the Association this season.

There are just too many issues for the Nuggets to overcome tonight. Their depth is far from impressive with Murray and Jokic out of the lineup. Doncic is simply on another level right now and I doubt that Denver has the firepower to match him.

With the Mavericks covering the spread in five of their last seven games against the Nuggets, I’m taking Dallas at -8.5 on the spread. Again, the road team missing its top two players has me doubting if they can keep it close.

I’m also backing the total going under 216.5 points. Dallas is one of the lower-scoring teams in the league while injuries should prevent Denver from scoring much. With the total going under in six of the last 10 Nuggets vs Mavericks matchups, I’m inclined to back the under again.

Other NBA Stories on Betting News (Nov. 18)

Devon Platana
Devon Platana