Buzelis is matched up against the Blazers tonight, and they rank seventh in opponent shot rate from three-point range and 13th in opponent shot rate at the rim, which is where the majority of Buzelis' attempts come from.
NBA Prop Picks for Thursday, February 26: Sell High on These Guys
Written by: Danny Burke
Published: Thu Feb 26, 2026, 11:58 am ET
Read Time: 6 minutes
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What's going on, everybody? Hope your Thursday's doing well. We've got a loaded 10-game slate on deck tonight, which means plenty of angles to attack in the prop market. Below are the bets I'll be riding sweating throughout the night.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today's slate, take a look at our NBA Picks Page or our NBA Odds Page.
LaMelo Ball Over 4.5 Rebounds (-110)
Charlotte Hornets guard LaMelo Ball has been steady on the glass this season, averaging 4.8 rebounds per game on the year and the exact same mark across nine games this month. I see value in backing him to exceed that average tonight.
The Hornets are improving but still have plenty to prove, so there's no room to overlook an opponent – even one like the Indiana Pacers, who they'll face this evening.
LaMelo logged just 23 minutes Tuesday night against the Bulls, so he should be well rested and in line for a fuller workload.
There should be ample rebounding opportunities, both because of expected playing time and due to Indiana's current form. The Pacers rank dead last in offensive points per 100 possessions and 29th in rebound percentage. If there's a spot for LaMelo Ball to clear his rebounding average, this is it.
Matas Buzelis Under 19.5 Points (-120)
This is a mark that's just a tad too high for an unreliable scoring option. There aren't many bright spots surrounding the Bulls organization, but second-year player Matas Buzelis is just about the only one. Still, he can't be trusted to score above his means on most nights.
That's not all his fault. He's surrounded by a poor cast of teammates and coach Billy Donovan doesn't give him enough meaningful minutes. He's averaging 15 points per game this season, but has seen a slight uptick in February, bringing him to just over 16 points per game. He's also coming off a 32-point performance Tuesday against Charlotte – his best outing of the season – which is why we're seeing his points prop rise to 19.5. Let's take advantage of betting the under on an inflated number.
Mark Williams Over 10.5 Points (+100)
The Phoenix Suns remain without several key players such as Devin Booker, Dillon Brooks, Haywood Highsmith and Jordan Goodwin. Even so, they've managed to stay somewhat competitive by leaning on increased production from role players like Mark Williams.
Williams is averaging about 12 points per game in 24 minutes this season. His numbers have dipped over the Suns' last two games, but that's because Phoenix lost both by double digits and had to be mindful of the minutes for the limited players they currently have available.
Thursday presents a much more favorable setup against a Lakers team that continues to underwhelm defensively. They rank 27th in eFG% allowed and 23rd in points per possession surrendered. That sets up well for Williams, considering 72% of his shots come at the rim and the Lakers rank 28th in opponent field goal percentage allowed from that area. Look for him to see solid minutes and capitalize in a favorable spot Thursday night.
Russell Westbrook Over 3.5 Rebounds (-125)
The Sacramento Kings and Russell Westbrook hit the second leg of a back-to-back tonight as they travel to Dallas to face the Mavericks. Dallas ranks 20th in rebound percentage this season, which sets up well for a look at Westbrook over 3.5 boards.
His rebounding production has dipped in February to 2.5 per game, which helps explain why some books are hanging a 3.5 line at just -125. His season average still sits at 5.5 boards per contest, so while the recent decline is noticeable, it's also creating a potential buy-low spot at this number.
Benedict Mathurin Under 21.5 Points (-112)
It's time to sell high on Benedict Mathurin. Since joining the Clippers, he's averaging 25.3 points per game and has cleared this 21.5 line in two of his four outings with Los Angeles.
I'm not a fan of the matchup tonight against the Timberwolves. Most of Mathurin's attempts come from the mid-range and at the rim, and Minnesota defends both areas at a high level — ranking seventh in opponent field goal percentage allowed from mid-range and fifth at the rim.
This is one of the league's top defensive units, and it's a spot where Mathurin should have a tougher time finding efficient scoring opportunities.
Best Bets:
- LaMelo Ball Over 4.5 Rebounds (-110)
- Matas Buzelis Under 19.5 Points (-120)
- Mark Williams Over 10.5 Points (+100)
- Russell Westbrook Over 3.5 Rebounds (-125)
- Benedict Mathurin Under 21.5 Points (-112)
NBA Record: 129-102-1 (+16.2 units)
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Danny Burke is a betting analyst with a decade of sports media experience. He got his start at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, sharing picks on the local ESPN affiliate. After college, he hosted shows for VSiN in Las Vegas before returning to Chicago to launch 'Rush Hour', the first daily sports betting show from an Illinois casino. He also co-hosted 'Props and Locks' on Fox32’s Bears pregame show and ran 'Bet On, Chicago' on WLS-AM 890.
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