NBA Prop Bets for Thursday, April 9: Looking to Fade LeBron

Danny Burke

Written by: Danny Burke

Published: Thu Apr 09, 2026, 11:44 am ET

Read Time: 5 minutes

Target value with our NBA prop bets for Thursday, April 9, as our analyst shows the players to back and why you should fade LeBron James.

nba

What's going on, everybody? We've got a six-game slate of hoops to work with tonight, and there are plenty of props to take advantage of.

I've narrowed down my four favorite below, so let's go ahead and dive into my NBA props bets for Thursday, April 9.

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NBA Prop Bets for Thursday, April 9

Leonard MIller

Leonard Miller Over 7.5 Rebounds (-132)

Rarely am I betting overs on any player from the Chicago Bulls, and I say that as a die-hard fan. But can you blame me? The entire organization, from top to bottom, is a complete nightmare.

One bright spot in what's otherwise a dark franchise has been the emergence of Leonard Miller. The 22-year-old forward has really started to make his mark since the beginning of March.

Over his past 15 games, Miller is averaging 14 points and seven rebounds in 26.5 minutes per game. That's a massive jump for a player who rarely saw the floor with the Minnesota Timberwolves, but he's clearly making the most of his new opportunity in Chicago.

I'll be targeting his rebounds prop specifically in tonight's matchup against the Washington Wizards.

A lot of my rebounds props have centered around players facing this Wizards team. They're one of the worst teams in the league and generate a ton of missed shots, which naturally creates plenty of rebounding opportunities for the opposition. That's exactly what I'm banking on here with Miller, who should be active across the board, but especially on the glass.

He's already starting to carve out a role with the Bulls, and against a bottom-tier team like Washington, this sets up as a great spot for him to make an even bigger impact.

Paul George Over 2.5 3-Pointers (+100)

Paul George

Since rejoining the 76ers' rotation after dealing with a multitude of injuries throughout February, George has played in seven games, averaging 24 points per contest.

Over 51% of his shot attempts during this span have come from beyond the arc, and he's knocking down an impressive 4.4 three-pointers per game.

If it ain't broke, don't fix it – and that's the approach I'm taking with George's three-point prop this evening.

We're getting a great look here, with the prop posted at just 2.5 and an affordable price attached.

The perception of the Houston Rockets, his opponent tonight, is that they're a strong defensive team. That's true to some degree, but their recent numbers tell a different story, particularly when it comes to defending the perimeter.

On the season, Houston ranks fourth in three-point field goal percentage allowed. However, if we narrow that window to the start of March, the Rockets fall to 18th in three-point field goal percentage given up. 

The market hasn't adjusted enough, and I'm looking to take advantage. Let's hope PG stays hot from downtown.

LeBron James Under 9.5 Assists (-115)

LeBron James

For our next pair of props, I'm going to be selling high on a couple of the Lakers' facilitating numbers against the Golden State Warriors.

First, let's look to fade LeBron James and his chances of getting 10+ assists tonight. He's coming off a 15-assist performance, which is why we're seeing a slight surge in this market. Don't let that fool you – James has averaged just seven assists per game this season, and that number held steady throughout March as well.

The Warriors' defense isn't top-tier, but I foresee James' focus shifting more toward scoring than distributing tonight.

Luke Kennard Under 5.5 Assists (-116)

The same principle applies to his teammate, Luke Kennard. Over his past two games, he's racked up nine and 11 assists, respectively.

It's time to sell high.

Prior to this two-game surge, the most assists Kennard logged in a game was five. He's averaging just 2.2 per game on the season, and now we're seeing his prop soar to 5.5, which is absurd.

I understand why the number is where it is, and if he clears it again, credit to him. But I'm willing to bet against him getting there for a third straight game.

Best Bets:

NBA Record: 187-153-1 (+15.76 units)

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Danny Burke
Danny Burke

Danny Burke is a betting analyst with a decade of sports media experience. He got his start at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, sharing picks on the local ESPN affiliate. After college, he hosted shows for VSiN in Las Vegas before returning to Chicago to launch 'Rush Hour', the first daily sports betting show from an Illinois casino. He also co-hosted 'Props and Locks' on Fox32’s Bears pregame show and ran 'Bet On, Chicago' on WLS-AM 890.

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