Happy Saturday, everyone! Hope you're ready for a full day of action on the hardwood. I've got three plays I'll be sweating out today. We're now 97-73-1 on the year, up +14.58 units. Let's look to get things moving in the right direction with my favorite NBA props for Saturday, January 17.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today's slate, take a look at our NBA Picks Page or our NBA Odds Page.
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Kyle Filipowski Under 7.5 Rebounds (-110)
The first game of Saturday's NBA slate tips off in Dallas at 5:00 pm ET, as the Mavericks host the Utah Jazz. I'll be targeting an under on Kyle Filipowski's rebounding prop this afternoon, backing him to stay below 7.5 boards.
Filipowski is averaging just six rebounds per game on the season, and that number has dipped to five per contest in January. During that stretch, he's stayed under 7.5 rebounds in eight of nine games.
That makes the recent jump in his rebounding prop a bit puzzling given the production. The counterargument is that Dallas isn't a strong rebounding team, ranking 21st in the league, and the absence of Anthony Davis, P.J. Washington, and potentially other contributors on the glass could open things up. Utah is also shorthanded in the frontcourt, but even in a similar situation last game, Filipowski managed just four rebounds.
Overall, I'm just not buying into the spike this prop is suggesting.
Dyson Daniels Under 11.5 Points (-115)
Let's move to Atlanta, where the Hawks host the Boston Celtics tonight. In this matchup, I'll be betting Dyson Daniels to stay under 11.5 points.
On the season, Daniels is averaging 11.7 points per game, and that number has climbed to 12.6 across eight games in January. Still, he remains a streaky scorer, particularly when it comes to consistently getting past this threshold. That's not something I'm confident in against a Boston defense that excels at taking away the areas where Daniels does most of his damage.
Nearly 49% of Daniels' shot attempts come at the rim, with another 37% coming from the short mid-range. Boston allows the fewest shot attempts at the rim in the NBA (25%), while also ranking ninth in opponent field-goal percentage at the rim and sixth from the short mid-range.
With all that in mind, this just feels like a game where Daniels will do more of the little things rather than look for his own shot. Boston forces the ball out of spots he's comfortable in, and that should naturally push him into more of a facilitator role. Because of that, I'm comfortable backing the under on 11.5 points.
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Mark Williams Under 8.5 Rebounds (-115)
Our third and final play consists of — you guessed it — another under. This one targets Mark Williams' rebounding production, as the Phoenix Suns head to Madison Square Garden to take on the Knicks tonight.
New York is a strong rebounding team, ranking fifth in rebound percentage this season, while Williams is pulling down just eight rebounds per game. That average sits barely below his prop tonight, but for a seven-footer, you'd expect a bit more consistency on the glass. A large reason for that is his playing time, as he seldom logs more than 24 minutes per game, which makes his rebounding output volatile.
When you combine that limited run with a tough matchup against one of the league's better rebounding teams, this feels like a good spot to fade him and take advantage of the under.
Bets:
NBA Record: 97-73-1 (+14.58)
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