Tuesday's NBA slate features eight games to dig into. I've got a handful of bets that stand out, so let's dive into my NBA player props for Tuesday, March 17.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today's slate, take a look at our NBA Picks Page or our NBA Odds Page.
NBA Player Props for Tuesday, March 17
Kel'el Ware Under 12.5 Rebounds (-135)
At 7:00 PM ET, the Miami Heat head to Charlotte to take on the Hornets. However, Erik Spoelstra's crew will likely be without Bam Adebayo, who's listed as doubtful.
Naturally, that could open up more opportunities for Kel'el Ware. While that may be true to some extent, I'm not buying into the idea that it will lead to a massive spike in his rebound production.
Ware is already an efficient rebounder, pulling down about nine per game, and he's shown the ability to clear this 12.5 line multiple times. But this isn't an easy matchup. The Hornets rank second in the NBA in rebound percentage (53.6%).
I'm not buying into the trendy angle that Ware's numbers automatically jump with Bam out. This feels more like a spot to sell high.
Mikal Bridges Over 14.5 Points (+105)
The New York Knicks bring a three-game win streak into tonight's home matchup against the lowly Indiana Pacers.
There's also a chance they'll have to keep it going without their top scorer, as Jalen Brunson is listed as doubtful.
That should open the door for a role player like Mikal Bridges to step up offensively. With Brunson likely sidelined, there will be more shots to go around, and the matchup helps. The Pacers rank 25th in defensive points per possession allowed.
Bridges has been underperforming lately, but this sets up as a strong bounce-back spot. Look for him to regain his rhythm and confidence, and drop at least 15 points tonight.
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James Harden Under 8.5 Assists (-125)
Let's head to Milwaukee, where the Bucks host the Cleveland Cavaliers. I'm taking a stab on James Harden under 8.5 assists tonight.
Since joining Cleveland, Harden is averaging 7.7 assists per game. He hasn't cleared 8.5 assists in four straight games and in seven of his last eight.
On the surface, this looks like a favorable matchup against a weak Milwaukee defense. That's not entirely wrong, but I'm putting more stock into Harden operating as a scorer first. The Bucks rank 26th in defensive points per possession and 29th in opponent three-point percentage, which should give Harden plenty of quality scoring looks.
His teammates should be able to generate quality looks on their own, without relying on Harden to facilitate everything.
On top of that, there's some blowout risk. If Cleveland pulls away, Harden may not see his usual minutes, lowering the likelihood he gets over this assist number.
Russell Westbrook Over 14.5 Points (-120)
Our final pair of props comes from the same game. Tonight's late tipoff is set for 10:00 PM ET out in the capital of California, as the Sacramento Kings take on the San Antonio Spurs.
The Spurs are on the second leg of a back-to-back after narrowly defeating the Los Angeles Clippers, 119-115, on Monday night.
Meanwhile, the Kings have quietly won two straight and four of their last five. There's been some life in Sacramento over the past 10 days.
A big part of that has been the spark Russell Westbrook has provided. The 37-year-old is averaging over 30 minutes across his last six games, putting up just under 17 points per contest in that span.
Normally, I wouldn't be eager to back him against a strong San Antonio defense, but the scheduling spot works in his favor. The Spurs are on tired legs and could overlook Sacramento, which gives me some optimism for Westbrook's outlook. With the Kings playing better lately, I also expect them to play inspired and deliver a competitive effort.
More importantly, Sacramento is banged up, already without Devin Carter and possibly Malik Monk. Someone other than DeMar DeRozan will need to step up, and Westbrook is more than willing to take on that role.
Keldon Johnson Over 4.5 Rebounds (-115)
Our final prop comes from the San Antonio side, as I'll be backing Keldon Johnson to grab at least five rebounds tonight.
As many good things as I just said about the Kings, let's be honest – they're still a sloppy team. Sloppy play leads to missed shots, and missed shots lead to rebounding opportunities.
Johnson is averaging 5.5 boards per game this season and has stayed right around that number in March. He's recorded at least five rebounds in six of nine games this month.
The matchup helps, too: Sacramento ranks 27th in the NBA in rebounding.
This line feels too low given his recent consistency and the upcoming opponent, so let's take advantage.
Best Bets:
NBA Record: 154-124-1 (+16.46 units)
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