There's no shortage of options on Thursday's NBA slate, which means plenty of opportunities in the player prop market. After breaking down the matchups, here are three props that stand out the most for March 12.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today's slate, take a look at our NBA Picks Page or our NBA Odds Page.
NBA Player Prop Bets for March 12: Three Picks to Target
Jaime Jaquez Jr. Over 5.5 Rebounds (+102)
Following a historic 83-point performance from Bam Adebayo, in the Heat's next game I'll be targeting somebody else's prop instead. Let's take on Jaime Jaquez's rebounding prop at 5.5 and grab the over at plus money.
On the season, Jaquez is averaging 5.3 rebounds per game, and he has gone over this mark in three of his last five contests. During that stretch, he's averaging right around 30 minutes per game. In his last two outings, he's actually logged less time than that and still pulled down six boards in each.
I'm projecting Jaquez to log at least 30 minutes tonight, which should only increase his rebounding opportunities.
The matchup also sets up well for him. Milwaukee ranks 21st in offensive points per possession, while Miami sits fourth on the defensive end, which could lead to plenty of missed shots and chances for Jaquez to stay active on the glass.
Devin Vassell Under 2.5 3-Pointers (-120)
One of the more intriguing games on Thursday night's slate features a battle in the Lone Star State, as the San Antonio Spurs host the Denver Nuggets.
Denver is coming off an impressive 129–93 win over Houston last night, while the Spurs had the day off and enter this matchup riding a five-game win streak.
The specific edge that stood out to me in this game was fading Devin Vassell's three-point production.
Vassell is averaging right around two made three-pointers on just over five attempts per game. He has also stayed below that mark in four consecutive games. Of course, that doesn't guarantee anything going forward, but Denver ranks eighth in opponent three-point field goal percentage allowed, which makes for a compelling case to fade him again tonight.
Additionally, while 55% of Vassell's shot attempts come from beyond the perimeter, his next most common area is from mid-range, which accounts for 34% of his looks. He's actually more efficient from that area as well, knocking down nearly 50% of those attempts.
That's notable considering the Nuggets struggle most defensively from mid-range, ranking 17th in opponent field goal percentage allowed from that territory.
Chet Holmgren Over 10.5 Rebounds + Assists (-105)
The other marquee matchup on Thursday night's NBA slate features a potential Finals preview, as the Oklahoma City Thunder host the Boston Celtics.
Boston is 2-1 since star forward Jayson Tatum returned to the lineup, with the lone loss coming in its most recent outing on Tuesday night – a 125-116 defeat at San Antonio.
On the flip side, OKC enters this matchup riding a six-game winning streak and hasn't played since Monday night, when Shai Gilgeous-Alexander sealed the deal with a game-winning three-pointer against the Nuggets.
In this spot, I'm looking to back his teammate, Chet Holmgren, to go over 10.5 rebounds and assists.
On the season, Holmgren is averaging nine rebounds and 1.8 assists per game, but since the All-Star break he has increased those numbers to 11.4 rebounds and 2.6 assists.
This game should have a playoff-like atmosphere, where heightened defensive intensity leads to more contested shots and, in turn, additional rebounding opportunities for Holmgren.
Boston's formidable interior defense could also force him to move the ball more frequently, giving him a solid chance to chip in a couple of assists as well.
Given his recent production, this line feels too low and is worth taking advantage of.
Best Bets:
NBA Record: 149-116-1 (+20.82 units)
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