NBA Best Bets for Thursday, March 9: Can the Heat be Beat?

Danny Burke

Written by: Danny Burke

Last Update: Thu Mar 19, 2026, 11:56 am ET

Read Time: 6 minutes

Tap in to tonight's action on the hardwood, as our NBA expert unveils his favorite NBA best bets for Thursday, March 9.

nba

Happy Thursday, everyone! There's no shortage of hoops to bet on today, from March Madness to a full NBA slate.

For this article, we'll be focusing squarely on the professional side, as I've got four NBA best bets lined up for Thursday, March 9.

For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today's slate, take a look at our NBA Picks Page or our NBA Odds Page.

NBA Best Bets for Thursday, March 9

Heat Lakers

Miami Heat -3 (-110) vs Los Angeles Lakers 

Let's begin with my only bet that isn't a prop. I'm going to be stepping in front of the freight train that is the Los Angeles Lakers right now.

The red-hot Lakers are seeking their eighth straight win after defeating the Rockets 124-116 last night. They also beat Houston in their previous matchup, 100-92, and before that took down the Nuggets in overtime, 127-125.

So it's not just that the Lakers are winning, it's the level of competition they've been beating, and it appears they're clicking at the right time. So why would I be looking to fade them?

As mentioned, they're on the second leg of a back-to-back after three consecutive hard-fought games. Now they travel to South Beach to face the always formidable Miami Heat, who should be a bit more motivated after dropping their last two.

It also looks like Bam Adebayo is set to return to the lineup, and I'm expecting Jaime Jaquez Jr. to be available as well.

Since the start of March, the Lakers have climbed into the top six in both offensive and defensive points per possession. The Heat aren't far behind, ranking top 10 in those categories over that same span.

Even with everything trending in the right direction for Los Angeles, this is a tough spot – and one they won't be too concerned about if they drop. I expect some fatigue to set in, along with regression toward their season-long defensive numbers tonight.

LaMelo Ball Over 4.5 Rebounds (-135)

Should a High Kings-Hornets Total Scare Away Over Bettors?

The team that just handed the Miami Heat their most recent loss was the Charlotte Hornets, and I'll be targeting one of their top players tonight in LaMelo Ball.

Ball has been a bit more active off the glass this season, averaging 4.8 rebounds per game, and 5.1 over the month of March.

I wouldn't be shocked to see Ball get to six rebounds in this matchup. Going against the Orlando Magic, this should be a more defensive, playoff-like environment. With increased defensive intensity leading to more contested shots and misses, it should create more opportunities for players like Ball to be active on the glass and pad his rebounding numbers.

Trey Murphy Under 3.5 3-Pointers (-120)

Tonight's matchup between the New Orleans Pelicans and Los Angeles Clippers is one I keep going back and forth on. The Clippers had been trending in the right direction in the second half of the season, but they've now dropped three straight and are a bit banged up. That includes a 124-109 loss to this Pelicans team last night.

Typically, that would push me toward a bounce-back spot for the Clippers, but New Orleans is healthy and playing with confidence, winning four of its last five.

I'm finding myself leaning a bit more toward the Pelicans to win again, but ultimately, I prefer attacking this game from a player prop angle.

Trey Murphy has been letting it fly from beyond the arc this season, averaging nearly nine three-point attempts per game and knocking down around three. There have also been stretches where he's pushed into the mid-to-high teens in attempts.

Last night against the Clippers, Murphy played 40 minutes and went 4-for-12 from deep. He's shooting 45% from the field and over 42% from three in March, which are ridiculous numbers, but also ones that feel due for some regression.

This sets up as a better defensive spot for the Clippers, who rank 12th in opponent three-point percentage since mid-December and have held steady in that range over the past couple of weeks. After losing to this team last night, I'd expect a more focused effort defensively.

With that in mind, I'm looking for some natural regression from Murphy in this matchup.

Lucky Rebel Sportsbook logo 4.9/5 Review Rating
Bonus & Benefits
Up to $1,250 + 50 Free Slots Spins
See our review »
$1,250 Welcome Bonus
Bet Live on Your Favorite Sports
Earn More with Rebel Rewards!
Play Now & Claim Bonus »

Jabari Walker Over 4.5 Rebounds (-120)

Our final prop bet of the night takes us to the late-game matchup between the Sacramento Kings and the Philadelphia 76ers.

The Sixers will be without Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, and Kelly Oubre Jr., which opens the door for increased opportunities across the rotation.

That includes Jabari Walker, who I'm targeting to go over 4.5 rebounds tonight.

I'm expecting Walker to log 20+ minutes, and in games this season where he's reached that threshold, he's gone over 4.5 rebounds in five of six.

Add in the fact that he'll be matched up against a sloppy offense in the Sacramento Kings, and we should be witnessing a plethora of rebounding opportunities for Jabari Walker on the West Coast tonight.

Best Bets:

NBA Record: 156-127-1 (+15.11 units)

Still Didn't Get Your NBA Fix?

Follow me on X @dannyburke5 for all my picks, analysis and plenty more. Also be sure to follow Betting News on 'X' and Twitch to catch us on stream! Betting News is also on TikTok! Follow us for more picks and news every day and check out our Free Expert Picks for every major sports league.

Get FREE Picks and Props Weekly

Sign up for
THE WEEKENDER NEWSLETTER

Check Out All of Our Betting Resources at Betting News

Danny Burke
Danny Burke

Danny Burke is a betting analyst with a decade of sports media experience. He got his start at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, sharing picks on the local ESPN affiliate. After college, he hosted shows for VSiN in Las Vegas before returning to Chicago to launch 'Rush Hour', the first daily sports betting show from an Illinois casino. He also co-hosted 'Props and Locks' on Fox32’s Bears pregame show and ran 'Bet On, Chicago' on WLS-AM 890.

This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Betting News makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.