NBA Best Bets for New Years Day (1/1) | Betting News

Varun Sharma

Written by: Varun Sharma

Last Update: Thu Jan 01, 2026, 4:32 pm ET

Read Time: 7 minutes

Get yourself geared up for Thursday night hoops, as Danny Burke delivers his NBA prop bets for Thursday, January 15.

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Happy New Year's Day! It's officially the first day of 2026 and we've got a beautiful looking NBA Slate to celebrate. We've got five games to talk about so I've enlisted the help of my favorite 'unders only' bettor, Danny Burke, to go through the entire slate. We've got a handful of props we love so let's jump right into it.

For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today's slate, take a look at ourNBA Picks Page or ourNBA Odds Page.

You can also browse our recommendations for thebest online sportsbooks available in the U.S.

NBA Best Bets for New Years Day (1/1)

Heat vs. Pistons

V's Bet: Duncan Robinson o15.5 PRA (-110 at Lucky Rebel)

You know I love a good narrative. Duncan Robinson plays his former team tonight, the Miami Heat and he does it on his own home floor tonight. This will be the second time he's played the Heat since his departure this summer, recording 18 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists in his return to Miami. Robinson shot 50% from the field, played 32 minutes and helped his team record the win.

Miami's playing at the fastest pace in the league this year and it's resulted a ton more shots for their opposition and way more scoring opportunities. Miami ranks 5th in opponent 3-point percentage but 22nd in opponent 3s made. The pace of play has lead to the Heat allowing 117.5 points per game (19th) but ranking 5th in defensive rating. The defense didn't disappear, they're just playing incredibly fast.

It's this exact reason I'm looking to bet Robinson's points/rebounds/assists prop. Robinson thrives in high paced games like this and against similar opponents like Atlanta/Portland/Utah he's cleared this line every time; almost always clearing the glass at a higher frequency.

Danny's Bet: Jaime Jaquez Jr Over 4.5 Rebounds (-115 at Lucky Rebel)

In the Motor City, the Pistons host the Miami Heat in what shapes up to be one of the more competitive games on the slate. This matchup profiles as a defense-first battle, with both teams capable of grinding possessions to a halt.

Detroit ranks first in defensive effective field-goal percentage allowed (51.6%) and second in points allowed per 100 possessions (110.6). Miami isn't far behind, sitting sixth in eFG% allowed (53.4%) and third in points per 100 possessions (113). Expect locked-in defense, plenty of missed shots, and ample rebounding opportunities.

That led me to finding value in a player like Jaime Jaquez Jr., whom I'm backing to go over 4.5 rebounds tonight. He's averaging 5.4 boards per game this season, which sets him up well in what should be a physical, half-court style matchup.

His production on the glass has dipped a bit throughout December, which is why we're being dealt a favorable number at 4.5. That gives us an opportunity to buy low and take advantage of the matchup.

James Harden

Jazz vs. Clippers

V's Bet: Kyle Filipowski o1.5 3s (+112 at Lucky Rebel)

This one might seem strange but the Jazz are without their entire starting five, no Kevin Love, no Walker Kessler and George Niang remains out of the lineup. Filipowski will get the start for the Jazz tonight and this Clippers perimeter defense is too porous for us to ignore. The Clippers rank 26th in opponent 3-point percentage and 19th in opponent 3s made.

The team's struggled against opposing big men, especially ones capable of stretching the floor. The Clippers let Donovan Clingan hit 3, Chet Holmgren had 3, Toumani Camara had 5 and Jabari Smith hit 4. Los Angeles just isn't closing out on big men taking 3s and it's something we've had success betting this year.

Filipowski's the latest target and I think tonight's a night we see him come alive.

Danny's Bet: James Harden Under 8.5 Assists (-122 at Lucky Rebel)

James Harden and the Los Angeles Clippers host the Utah Jazz at the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California.

It's been a rough season for both teams, and I'm expecting a quieter night from Harden, specifically in the assists department.

Harden is averaging eight assists per game this season, but that figure dipped to 6.5 in December. His prop has been inflated to 8.5 tonight due to a favorable matchup against a Utah defense allowing an NBA-high 30.4 assists per game. Even so, I'm comfortable fading this number.

Harden will still distribute the ball, but he should also have ample opportunity to score against a Jazz defense that ranks 29th in both eFG% and Pts/Poss. With that in mind, this sets up as a spot to sell high on Harden's assist production tonight.

76ers vs. Mavericks

Danny's Bet: Paul George Under 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-135 at Lucky Rebel)

Through 15 games this season, the 76ers' veteran forward is averaging 2.7 made threes on 6.7 attempts per game. He's knocked down at least three triples in seven contests, including each of his last three outings.

Despite that recent run, I'm backing him to stay under 2.5 made threes tonight. Dallas enters this matchup with the league's top three-point defense, holding opponents to just 33.5% from deep, while also allowing the second-fewest attempts from beyond the arc. The Mavericks also come in with two full days of rest.

Dallas should be locked in defensively and continue to limit perimeter production, especially against a shooter who hasn't been consistent from downtown this year.

Maxime Raynaud

Celtics vs. Kings

V's Bet: Maxime Raynaud o8.5 Rebounds (+108 at Lucky Rebel)

The Celtics rank 27th in opponent offensive rebound rate and it's something they've struggled with a ton this year. Raynaud's been great in his rookie year, now entering the starting lineup for Sacremento. He's started 11 games for the Kings this year, averaging 14.6 points, 9.5 rebounds and 1.3 assists per game. More importantly, the rook's averaging 3.1 offensive rebounds per game.

Raynaud continues to crash the glass and present problems for opposing big men. I'm expecting a big night from the Parisian.

V's Best Bets:

  • Duncan Robinson o15.5 PRA (-110)
  • Kyle Filipowski o1.5 3s (+112)
  • Maxime Raynaud o8.5 Rebounds (+108)

Danny's Best Bets:

  • Jaime Jaquez Jr. Over 4.5 Rebounds (-115)
  • James Harden Under 8.5 Assists (-122)
  • Paul George Under 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-135)

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Varun Sharma
Varun Sharma

You may know me as ‘VSaaauce’. I’ve been a die hard hoops fan my entire life. I’ve been betting on the NBA/NCAAB/NFL/MLB for six years now, each year gaining more and more knowledge about being a profitable handicapper. I’m eager to learn, and eager to pass on everything I’ve gained over the last few years. I started my Twitter page four years ago, and this community makes me so thankful I did. Outside of sports and handicapping, I enjoy traveling, hoopin, a strong espresso and I’m currently studying to obtain my MD. I’m all about the vibes, good vibes only. If that sounds like you, follow me on 'X' @VSaaauce.

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