NBA (4/18) | Tonight’s Best Player Props in the Association: Postseason Edition

The NBA Playoffs are finally here and we've got a full four game slate to kick it all off. I've got a few player props I love tonight and so much more I want to discuss. Let's jump right into it.

For additional information on picks, props, money lines and more on today's NBA slate, take a look at our NBA Picks Page or our NBA Odds Page. 

Today's Best Bets

• Jarrett Allen o14.5 Points (-110)
• Ayo Dosunmu o17.5 PRA (-110)
• Nikola Jokic o41.5 P/R (-120)
• Mitchell Robinson o13.5 P/R (-110)

Jarrett Allen o14.5 Point (+105) | Lucky Rebel

Jarrett Allen with James Harden has been just a completely different player. He's averaging 18.6 points per game in 13 games with Harden in the lineup, he's shooting 70.5% from the field and he's hasn't even played a full compliment of minutes in all 13 games.

Since the Harden trade, Allen's usage rate has jumped 4%, his shot attempts are up to 10.6 per game and he's even getting to the line for 6.4 free throw attempts per contest. The Toronto Raptors defense has been great this year, but Harden and Mobley have just been so good.

With Allen, Harden and Mitchell on the floor this year; the Cavaliers offensive rating rockets to 130.5. It's a small sample size but it clearly highlights how efficient this trio's been. In the 11 games all three have been available, Allen's averaging 19.2 points per game and he's cleared this line in 10 of 11 games.

Ayo Dosunmu o17.5 PRA (-110) | Lucky Rebel

This line just feels incredibly low for a guy who has been thriving in his new role. Since being traded to the Minnesota Timberwolves, Ayo's averagine: 14.4 points, 4.2 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game. He's shooting 52.1% fom the field and 41.4% from beyond the arc.

He's been great in his role and he's stepped up when the Timberwolves have needed him. Ayo's cleared this line in 11 straight games and in 15 of the 19 games he's played over 23 minutes. Jaden McDaniels is back for the Timberwolves and I'm guessing Anthony Edwards will be too.

In the postseason we see rotations tighten up all the time, but Ayo's was brought in at the deadline to have an impact here in the postseason. This will be just Ayo's sixth career playoff game and possibly first seeing over 20 minutes of game time.

Ayo's been one of the Timberwolves best defenders since arriving and tonight against the Denver Nuggets they'll need the help. It's a small sample size, but Ayo's guarded Jamal Murray on 69 possessions over the last three years; holding him to a 29.1% true shooting.

Inversely, Murray's guarded Ayo on 56 possessions and Ayo's got a 73.2% true shooting; averaging 17.3 points per 75 possessions. He won't play 30 minutes, but 22-25 should be just enough.

Nikola Jokic o41.5 (-110) | Lucky Rebel

Same game, but something a little different. Nikola Jokić EATS Rudy Gobert.

Since 2020, the two have met 21 times in the regular season and 18 times in the playoffs. In these 39 games, Jokić is averaging 30.0 points, 10.6 rebounds and 8.4 assists per game. He's shooting 56.2% from the field in these games and 43.9% from three.

Jokić is taking an average of 19.8 shots attempts per game in these 39 matchups and getting to the free throw lne for nearly 7 attempts per game. Minnesota ranks 20th in opponent offensive rebound rate and centers against Rudy Gobert has been a system that works.

Gobert's propensity to sit near the basket lets a traditional big man sit in the paint and not have to get out on the perimeter. It allows more rebounding opportunities on the defensive glass and let's you attack the offensive glass without fear of outlet passes.

Jokić's volume against Gobert can't be ignored and same with the fact that Jamal Murray's matchup with this Minnesota backcourt might be tougher than we think.

Mitchell Robinson o13.5 P/R (-115) | Lucky Rebel

The New York Knicks limited his minutes all year. They sat him for back to backs and played him in just 61 games this year. The Knicks did all that so they could have a healthy Mitchell Robinson going into the postseason.

Robinson is such a big part of the Knicks success and sometimes we undervalue it because of his limited availability. He's got the 5th most offensive rebounds in the league this year and he's the only one in the top 10 that's missed 20+ games and coming off the bench.

He leads the league in offensive rebounding rate and nearly 50% of his points comes from second chance points. The Atlanta Hawks have done a great job of clearing the glass, that just doesn't matter against Robinson.

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