NBA | 2026 Western Conference Postseason Preview: Larry or Bust

Varun Sharma

Written by: Varun Sharma

Last Update: Wed Apr 15, 2026, 3:10 pm ET

Read Time: 10 minutes

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The NBA Playoffs are here and I've got a full breakdown of this year's Western Conference. We've got some great matchups and I can't wait to break them all down. Let's jump into it.

For a full breakdown of the Eastern Conference, click here.

For additional information on picks, props, money lines and more on today's NBA slate, take a look at our NBA Picks Page or our NBA Odds Page. 

(5) Houston Rockets vs. (4) Los Angeles Lakers

Lebron James

Sh(L)owtime Lakers

The Lakers come into this matchup with the Rockets, severely underhanded. Both Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves still remain out of the lineup and Luka's currently in Europe receiving treatment for his hamstring. Reports have come out that Luka will return to Los Angeles on Tuesday for re-evaluation and something tells me he could suit up for Game 2/3.

Luka was having an MVP-esque type of season before the hamstring injury. He was averaging 33.5 points, 7.7 rebounds and 8.3 assists per game. He's shooting 47.6% from the field and 36.6% from beyond the arc. The Lakers went 43-21 in games with Luka in the lineup and the team's shooting 50% from the field with him out there.

Los Angeles went 10-8 without Dončić this year, scoring just 114.4 points per game. The offense struggles even more when both Dončić and Reaves are out simultaneously, scoring just 114.1 points per game and going 4-4 in the process.

When both Reaves and Dončic are off the floor this year, the team's offensive rating drops to 113.5 and it's even uglier with Lebron off the court. When all three guys are off the court this year, the Lakers offensive rating drops to 98.5 while their defensive rating rockets o 124.7. That's a net rating of -26.2 with all three guys off the court.

Game 1 will be without both Dončic and Reaves, but the hope is they'll be back sooner, rather than later.

Slim Reaper

Kevin Durant has played the 2nd most minutes in the NBA this year. Yes, you heard that correctly. Kevin Durant, at the age of 37; played the second most minutes in the NBA this year. He's been great, he's been efficient and he's the reason the Rockets are looking to make noise here in the postseaosn.

Durant's played Lebron 14 times in the postseason, winning 9 of the 14 games and averaging 31.7 points per game while doing it. Durant and the Rockets have been locked in to finish the season and after missing the postseason last year, I'm expecting vintage Durant in the first round.

He leads his team in points, he's been their most efficient scorer and recently he's been doing a ton to stuff the stat sheets in more ways than one. Durant averaged 6.0 rebounds and 6.3 assists per game in the month of April and I don't see why the Rockets' offense would slow down against the Lakers.

The Rockets will only go as far as KD can take them. Now the question is, how much does he have left in the tank?

Game 1 – Saturday, April 18th, 2026

  • Location: Crypto.com Arena; Los Angeles, California
  • Tipoff: 8:40 PM EST

Key Players

  • Kevin Durant (HOU): 36.4 MPG | 26.0 PPG | 5.5 RPG | 4.8 APG
  • Lebron James (LAL): 33.2 MPG | 20.9 PPG | 6.1 RPG | 7.2 APG

Prediction: Lakers in 7

Odds via Lucky Rebel, an industry leader in the sports betting world.

(6) Minnesota Timberwovles vs. (3) Denver Nuggets

Nikola Jokic

Mile High

For the first time in NBA history, a center will finish the year as the league leader in both rebounds per game AND assists per game. Nikola Jokić averaged 28/13/11 this year, shooting 56.9% from the field and 38.0% from the perimeter. He's played in 65 of the team's 82 games, going 43-22 with Joker in the lineup.

In these 65 games, the Nuggets averaged 125.3 points per game, they shot 50.5% from the field and 39.9% from outside. The offense is just so much better when Jokić is at the center of it and he's had some of his best games ever, against Rudy Gobert.

Since 2020, the two have met 21 times in the regular season and 18 times in the playoffs. In these 39 games, Jokić is averaging 30.0 points, 10.6 rebounds and 8.4 assists per game. He's shooting 56.2% from the field in these games and 43.9% from three.

Denver ranks 1st in offensive rating, 21st in defensive rating and 7th in net. The Nuggets' offense has carried this team and it's this offense that helped them finished the year on a 15-2 run. Jamal Murray made his first ever All-Star Game this year and it was well deserved.

Murray averaged 25.4 points per game in the regular season this year, adding 4.4 rebounds and 7.1 assists per game. With both Jokić and Murray on the floor, Denver's offensive rating jumps to 130.6 and that might just be high enough to cause Minnesota problems.

'We Got, Jaden McDaniels'

This will be the third time in the last four years that the Nuggets and Timberwolves face off in the postseason. The Nuggets hold the overall record at 7-5, but both teams have won one series each.

The Timberwolves have had their issues this year, but if Anthony Edwards is healthy, they've got a chance to win on any given night. Antman's averaging 28.8 points per game this year and shooting 48.9% and nearly 40% from three.

Minnesota ranks 7th in points scored this year, 5th in 3-point percentage and 7th in free throw rate. They've done a great job on the offensive side and that's not only because of Edwards. Jaden McDaniels is a putting up a career high 14.8 points per game this year, shooting 51.5% from the field and even 41.2% from beyond the arc.

The Timberwolves also traded for Ayo Dosunmu at the deadline and I don't think even they saw it playing out this well. He's averaging 14.4 points per game with the Wolves,, 4.2 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game. Ayo's shooting 52.1% from the field since coming to Minnesota and 41.4% from the perimeter.

He's been huge in the absence of Antman and I've got a strong feeling they'll need his offense out there against Denver.

Game 1 – Saturday, April 18th, 2026

  • Location: Ball Arena; Denver, Nuggets
  • Tipoff: 3:40 PM EST

Key Players

  • Anthony Edwards (MIN): 35.0 MPG | 28.8 PPG | 5.0 RPG | 3.7 APG
  • Nikola Jokic (DEN): 34.8 MPG | 27.7 PPG | 12.9 RPG | 10.7 APG

Prediction: Nuggets in 6

Odds via Lucky Rebel, an industry leader in the sports betting world.

(7) [TBD] vs. (2) San Antonio Spurs

The Jackles' Den

In what was Victor Wembanyama's first fully healthy season, he led the Spurs to the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference, he helped them win 62 games, and it's all but a guarantee that he'll win his first Defensive Player of the Year Award this year.

The Spurs rank 3rd in defensive rating, 8th in points allowed and are giving up just 111.5 points per game this year. They rank 4th in opponent field goal percentage, holding opponents to 45% from the field and just 35.2% from outside.

San Antonio's defensive rating goes from 106.9 with Wemby on the floor, to 115.6 with him on the bench or out of the lineup. He's got a personal net rating of +16.7 this year and team's are shooting nearly 7% lower when Wembanyama is on the court.

Outside of Wemby, the Spurs are incredibly deep. Dylan Harper Jr. and Carter Bryant have been exceptional as rookies and De'Aaron Fox brings a certain level of experience to a very inexperienced roster.

Suns or Blazers?

With the play-in games set to tip off over the next two days, you'll have to stay tuned for the Spurs' next opponent. For a full breakdown of the Suns/Blazers game, click here.

Game 1 – Sunday, April 19th, 2026

  • Location: Frost Break Center; San Antonio, Texas
  • Tipoff: 9:10 PM EST

Key Players

  • Victor Wembanyama (SAS): 29.2 MPG | 25.0 PPG | 11.5 RPG | 3.1 APG

Prediction: Spurs in 5

Odds via Lucky Rebel, an industry leader in the sports betting world.

(8) [TBD] vs. (1) Oklahoma City Thunder

Thunder

Back to Back?

The only question surrounding the Oklahoma City Thunder this year has been, can they go back to back? The last time we saw a repeat champion in the NBA was back in 2018 when the Golden State Warriors won back to back championships with Steph Curry and Kevin Durant.

That was one of the best teams of the modern era and it's hard to compare anyone to them, but the Thunder come pretty damn close. Oklahoma City once again finished with the best record in the NBA, the best defense in the NBA and they've got the MVP front runner leading the charge.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 31.1 points per game and just had one of the most efficient guard seasons in NBA history. He just recorded his 4th season averaging 30+ points while shooting better than 50% from the field. The only guard to do that more than Shai? Michael Jordan.

Mike did it five times, Shai's done it four times and just three total times by every other guard in NBA history. Shai's putting up historic numbers and he's done it on a team that's suffered a plethora of injuries this year. The team had 76 total missed games between their big three of Shai, Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams.

Williams' played in just 33 games for the Thunder this year and has played over 30 minutes just a handful of times. Even with their second best player on the sidelines, the Thunder won 64 games, finished the year with the best net rating in the NBA and it's more than likely Shai wins his second straight MVP Award.

Can Oklahoma City go back to back? Or will the Championship hangover finally catch up to them.

Short Straw

Whoever comes out of the play-in tournament to face this Thunder team is about to run into a buzzsaw. Oklahoma City has been unstoppable on both sides of the floor and outside of maybe one game, I don't see them losing much in the first round.

Game 1 – Sunday, April 19th, 2026

  • Location: Paycom Center; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
  • Tipoff: 3:40 PM EST

Key Players

  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC): 33.2 MPG | 31.1 PPG | 4.3 RPG | 6.6 APG

Prediction: Thunder in 5

Odds via Lucky Rebel, an industry leader in the sports betting world.

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Varun Sharma
Varun Sharma

You may know me as ‘VSaaauce’. I’ve been a die hard hoops fan my entire life. I’ve been betting on the NBA/NCAAB/NFL/MLB for six years now, each year gaining more and more knowledge about being a profitable handicapper. I’m eager to learn, and eager to pass on everything I’ve gained over the last few years. I started my Twitter page four years ago, and this community makes me so thankful I did. Outside of sports and handicapping, I enjoy traveling, hoopin, a strong espresso and I’m currently studying to obtain my MD. I’m all about the vibes, good vibes only. If that sounds like you, follow me on 'X' @VSaaauce.

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