Mavericks vs Thunder NBA Game 5 Predictions, Odds & Best Bets (5/15): Who’ll Win Pivotal Clash?

Today’s Mavericks vs. Thunder  NBA Game 5 predictions and best bets are brought to you by BetOnline. BetOnline is a market leader in sports betting, offering various options from the NBA playoffs to the UFC odds and everything in between.

The Dallas Mavericks and Oklahoma City Thunder will fight for the crucial 3-2 series lead when they clash for a pivotal Game 5 matchup on Wednesday, May 15.

Game 5 in OKC: Wednesday, May 15 at 8:30PM CT on @NBAonTNT

Get Tickets | https://t.co/gpbniw6Y4z pic.twitter.com/vyPXIvgszz

— OKC THUNDER (@okcthunder) May 10, 2024

Both teams put on strong defensive performances in Game 4, but it was the Thunder who emerged with the 100-96 victory. The Mavericks simply didn’t have an answer for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who paced the game with 34 points while adding eight rebounds, five assists, and two steals.

Will Dallas regain some momentum with an upset win? Or will Oklahoma City take one step closer to advancing to the next round?

Tonight’s showdown also features its fair share of NBA betting opportunities, so let’s discuss them (and more) by getting into my Mavericks vs. Thunder Game 5 predictions and picks.

Mavericks vs Thunder NBA Betting Tonight (5/14)

Mavericks vs Thunder Game 5 Information

• Matchup: No. 5 Dallas Mavericks vs. No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder (Series tied 2-2)
• Venue & Location: Paycom Center (Oklahoma City, OK)
• Date: Wednesday, May 15, 2024
• Game Time: 9:30 p.m. ET
• How to Watch Mavericks vs. Thunder Game 5: TNT

Thunder vs Mavericks NBA Game 5 Betting Odds & Spread

Thunder vs. Mavericks NBA odds are courtesy of BetOnline as of Wednesday, May 15 at 9:30 a.m. ET. Odds from other top online sportsbooks may also be mentioned in this article.

Thunder vs Mavericks Spread

• Dallas Mavericks +4 (-105)
• Oklahoma City Thunder -4 (-115)

Mavericks vs Thunder Over/Under

• Over 212.5 Points (-110)
• Under 212.5 Points (-110)

Thunder vs Mavericks Moneyline

• Dallas Mavericks (+150)
• Oklahoma City Thunder (-170)

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Mavericks vs Thunder NBA Betting Trends

• Dallas is 4-8 straight up in its last 12 games vs. Oklahoma City.
• Oklahoma City is 8-1 straight up in its last nine home games.
• Dallas is 6-3 ATS in its last nine games.
• Oklahoma City is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games played in May.
• The total hit the Under in 10 of Dallas’ last 14 road games.
• The total hit the Under in four of Oklahoma City’s last five games vs. Dallas.

Mavericks vs Thunder Game 5 Predictions & NBA Picks Today (5/15)

After the Mavericks and Thunder split the first four meetings, this second-round NBA playoff series has officially become a best-of-3 situation. Having said that, you can argue that Oklahoma City has the edge due to two of the next three games being played at Paycom Center.

Playing at home usually pays off for Mark Daigneault’s team. Between the 2023-24 regular season and postseason, the Thunder boast an impressive 36-9 SU record at home, which includes going 33-6 SU as the home favorite. On the flip side, the Mavericks are only 7-14 SU as away underdogs and have lost four of their last five trips to Oklahoma City by an average of 22.3 points.

Speaking of Paycom Center, the Thunder have been red-hot at home lately. After all, they had won eight consecutive home games before losing Game 2 to the Mavs, averaging 120.3 PPG with a plus-24.1 PPG.

The Thunder have been near-unstoppable at home over the last several weeks. 

It also remains to be seen if the Mavericks are capable of a complete 48-minute effort. After all, Dallas was up 54-43 at halftime in Game 4 only to collapse in the second half, being outscored 57-42 by Oklahoma City in the final two frames. A similar effort would surely end in disaster on the road tonight.

Similarly, the Thunder can’t risk another slow start. Yes, they managed to come back last time, but the Mavericks’ defensive prowess can’t be underestimated. There’s a reason why Dallas held Oklahoma City to .380/.259/.958 splits two nights ago. Had the former done a better job at hitting its free throws, the Mavs might be up 3-1 at this point.

The good news for the Thunder is that Luka Doncic is questionable with knee and ankle injuries again. Although the Mavericks superstar has managed to play through his issues thus far, it’s clear that he isn’t fully healthy, proven by his averaging just 22.0 points on .390/.310/.679 splits over the last four games.

Oklahoma City is fully healthy at this stage of the postseason, meaning it must get the most out of its lineup. The likes of Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, and Jalen Williams must deliver under the spotlight tonight.

Luka Doncic’s (knee/ankle) Game 5 status is currently up in the air. 

In a game that could go either way, I predict that the Thunder will win. Oklahoma City overcame Dallas’ solid defensive ways in Game 4 and that was on the road. Now that the series is back at Paycom Center, the Thunder will receive an even bigger boost from the crowd. Considering how dominant they’ve been at home all year, I don’t see an upset occurring tonight.

For the best bet, let’s take the Under on the 212.5-point total.  There hasn’t been a ton of scoring in this series with the first four games only averaging a total of 208.3 points. What’s even more interesting is that three of those games finished below tonight’s projected total.

With the Under also being 10-4 in Dallas’ last 14 road games and 9-2 in OKC’s last 11 games against a Western opponent, it’s safe to expect fewer points than what’s projected.

Mavericks vs Thunder NBA Game 5 Prediction: OKC wins

Best Mavericks vs Thunder NBA Bet: u212.5 Total Points (-110)

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Best Mavericks vs Thunder NBA Game 5 Prop Bet (5/15)

Even if I’m not projecting the Mavericks to win, I still like the Over on P.J. Washington’s 15.5-point total (-118).

With Doncic banged up and Kyrie Irving playing inconsistently, Washington has stepped up. The 25-year-old big man is averaging a whopping 25.7 points on .483/.500/.400 splits across the last three games, finishing with at least 21 points in each contest. Sometimes it’s just best to ride with the hot hand, hence why I’m feeling confident about this prop — especially if the Thunder keep struggling to defend the paint.

Best Mavericks vs Thunder Game 5 Prop Bet: P.J. Washington o15.5 Total Points (-118)

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