Kate’s Prop Shop: NBA Dunk Contest Edition

Kate Constable

Written by: Kate Constable

Published: Sat Feb 14, 2026, 1:00 pm ET

Read Time: 4 minutes

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NBA All-Star Weekend isn't what it used to be and that matters more for the Dunk Contest than anything else.

There was a time when stars actually wanted to be part of this event. The dunks were creative, the competition was real, and the contest felt like must-see TV. The league has tried to recapture that energy, but the reality is that today's top-tier players want nothing to do with it.

Case in point: Mac McClung is sitting out after winning the last three Dunk Contests. And reportedly, some players didn't want to participate if he was in it. That tells you everything you need to know about the current state of this event. Players aren't avoiding the contest for fear of losing or embarrassing themselves when going up against a lesser-known player. That fear has completely reshaped the field, and it's exactly why this year's contest creates betting value.

Instead of household names, we're left with athletic role players and fringe rotation guys. Not stars or creators. Just raw explosiveness. And in a dunk contest, that's the only thing that actually matters.

For additional NBA All-Star Game information on picks, analysis and more, take a look at our Rising Stars Challenge breakdown and best bets, along with our NBA Picks Page or our NBA Odds Page.

You can also browse our recommendations for the best online sportsbooks available in the U.S.

2026 NBA Dunk Contest Odds (via Lucky Rebel)

  • Jase Richardson – Magic (+200)
  • Carter Bryant – Spurs (+225)
  • Jaxson Hayes – Lakers (+260)
  • Keshad Johnson – Heat (+350)

If you shop around, you'll notice significantly different odds at various books, but that's why the value is clear at Lucky Rebel for my favorite dunk contest bet. If this contest is going to be decided by pure athletic upside, I want the guy with the most explosive profile in the field.

Keshad Johnson (+350 at Lucky Rebel)

Johnson is in just his second NBA season, but his athletic résumé already jumps off the page. At the 2024 NBA Draft Combine, he recorded a 42-inch max vertical, tying Trentyn Flowers for the best mark at the event and the highest vertical of any dunk contest participant this year.

At 6-foot-6, Johnson has the ideal build for this setting. Long, powerful, and fast off the floor. He doesn't play heavy minutes for the Miami Heat, but when he does, he makes them count. Just a few weeks ago, he threw down a dunk against the Orlando Magic, taking off from the free-throw line, which shows us in-game proof of what he can do.

Go back a little further and his case only gets stronger. At San Diego State and Arizona, Johnson built a reputation as a highlight machine. If he has space or a runway, he can improvise with the best of them. The judges are going to be looking for power and hangtime over gimmicks, which is exactly what Johnson provides. And in a year without stars, without McClung, without anyone who clearly stands out from the pack, betting on the best athlete at the longest price is the right play.

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Kate Constable
Kate Constable

Kate is a Minnesota-born, Chicago-based sports broadcaster and betting analyst covering football and basketball across both the college and pro ranks. A host on the BetMGM Network (The Bettor Angle, BetMGM Gameday) and contributor at Betting News, she delivers smart, honest, and occasionally painful insight — usually while regretting her loyalty to the Bears and Timberwolves.

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