Best NBA Prop Bets for Monday, March 2: Jump off the Jokic Train

Danny Burke

Written by: Danny Burke

Published: Mon Mar 02, 2026, 11:48 am ET

Read Time: 5 minutes

Nikola Jokic

nba

What's going on, everyone? Happy Monday – hope you're all doing well. We've only got a four-game slate on tap tonight, but there are still plenty of props worth sweating out on the hardwood.

We're coming off a 3-1 night (+2.15 units) on Saturday, bringing the overall record to 133-106-1 for +16.05 units. Let's keep building on that with my NBA prop bets for Monday, March 2.

For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today's slate, take a look at our NBA Picks Page or our NBA Odds Page.

Best NBA Prop Bets for Monday, March 2

Kevin Porter

Kevin Porter Jr Under 18.5 Points (-103)

The Milwaukee guard averaged 20.8 points per game in February, but closed the month with just 11 against the Knicks and followed it up with a 10-point dud in Chicago to open March. 

Now he draws Boston – and that's not the spot to rediscover rhythm.

The Celtics rank third in defensive effective field goal percentage and seventh in points allowed per 100 possessions. They don't just defend well overall, they take away exactly what Porter wants to do.

About 33% of his shots come at the rim, and Boston ranks first in shot rate allowed and seventh in opponent field goal percentage at the rim. His most common area is mid-range (41% of his attempts), but the Celtics sit fourth in opponent field goal percentage from that zone, too.

The matchup lines up poorly across the board. His scoring line is still inflated from that February stretch, giving us a strong spot to fade that before the market adjusts.

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Baylor Scheierman Over 4.5 Rebounds (+105)

Staying in that same lane of how dominant this Celtics defense has been, another player who could benefit is Baylor Scheierman.

Boston's defensive pressure should force plenty of missed shots from Milwaukee, naturally boosting rebounding opportunities. That's where a player like Scheierman can quietly cash in.

He's averaging three rebounds per game on the season, but with increased playing time has come increased production – he averaged 6.5 boards per game in February.

Boston laying -7.5 suggests the potential for a comfortable lead, which could open the door for extended run for younger pieces like Scheierman. Yes, he's been in the starting lineup, but as someone still carving out his role, and helping fill the void left by Jayson Tatum, there's a strong chance he sees steady minutes if this game tilts in Boston's favor.

Let's take advantage of a great price point on Scheierman's rebounds prop. 

Nikola Jokic Under 10.5 Assists (-109)

Three-time NBA MVP Nikola Jokic - NBA Betting Guide cover

It's always a tough sell to step in front of a Nikola Jokic under, but if there's a spot to consider it, this might be one.

Denver heads to Salt Lake City for the second leg of a back-to-back after Jokic logged 37 minutes in a high-intensity matchup against Minnesota. That's not insignificant wear and tear, especially this late in the season.

As the NBA hits the final stretch of the season, teams are naturally a bit more cautious with their star players' workloads – particularly in scheduling spots like this and when they're double-digit favorites over one of the league's worst teams. If this game gets out of hand, there's a realistic path to reduced minutes.

Utah ranks dead last defensively, so Jokic should be able to get whatever he wants near the rim and generate quality looks on most possessions. That could tilt him more toward scoring than facilitating. The Jazz also rank 29th in defensive free-throw rate allowed, which could lead to more trips to the line and fewer assist opportunities if possessions end in fouls.

Jokic averages 10.5 assists per game, so the bar is high as always. But with the back-to-back and potential minute management in play, there's a reasonable chance he doesn't get the usual run needed to eclipse that mark.

Best Bets:

NBA Record: 133-106-1 (+16.05 units)

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Danny Burke
Danny Burke

Danny Burke is a betting analyst with a decade of sports media experience. He got his start at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, sharing picks on the local ESPN affiliate. After college, he hosted shows for VSiN in Las Vegas before returning to Chicago to launch 'Rush Hour', the first daily sports betting show from an Illinois casino. He also co-hosted 'Props and Locks' on Fox32’s Bears pregame show and ran 'Bet On, Chicago' on WLS-AM 890.

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