2025/26 NBA Futures: Can Jaylen Brown Steal the MVP?

Varun Sharma

Written by: Varun Sharma

Last Update: Mon Mar 02, 2026, 7:34 pm ET

Read Time: 5 minutes

Jaylen BRown

nba

If you've made it this far, I've at least peaked your interest. The race for the 'Most Valuable Player' Award is heating up and Jaylen Brown may really have a shot at this thing.

Today we're going to take a look at his chances and reflect on the 50-1 odds we got just a couple weeks ago. Let's get into it.

For more on NBA Futures, click here for an in depth look at this year's odds to lift the Larry O'Brien Trophy. 

For additional information on picks, props, money lines and more on today's NBA slate, take a look at our NBA Picks Page or our NBA Odds Page. 

Most Valuable Player

Oklahoma City Thunder

Oddsmakers have remained consistent with who they think is winning this year's MVP and that's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Shai's played in 51 of the Oklahoma City Thunder's 63 games so far this year and should face no problem meeting the 65-game minimum needed to qualify for the NBA Awards.

Shai missed practically all of February with a strained abdomen, but he's now returned with almost no restrictions. He's played 33 or more minutes in both games since returning, scoring 36 and 30 points in the two games, shooting 48.9% from the field.

The only restriction we've seen on Shai came in his first game back when we saw the reining MVP sit for the entire overtime period. Head Coach Mark Daigneault told media it was something he discussed with Shai before the game and that Shai's long term health would be the top priority.

Oklahoma City once again has the best record in the NBA and they've had multiple stars missed a multitude of games. The Thunder have won 7 of their 11 games without Shai this year and sometimes a record like that can work against you when debating the MVP.

Betting Odds

  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (-260)
  • Nikola Jokic (+450)
  • Cade Cunningham (+1000)
  • Luka Dončić (+10000)
  • Victor Wembanyama (+2500)
  • Jaylen Brown (+6500)

Odds via Lucky Rebel, an industry leader in the sports betting world.

Past Winners

  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2024/25)
  • Nikola Jokić (2023/24)
  • Joel Embiid (2022/23)
  • Nikola Jokić (2021/22)
  • Nikola Jokić (2020/21)

Jaylen Brown (+6500)| Lucky Rebel

Boston Celtics

Two-Way Demon

The one thing that gets lost so often in MVP debates is the fact that basketball's a two way sport. There are two very specific sides of the game, one being offense and the other being defense. Defense is what often gets forgotten about when we look to define the 'Most Valuable' and it's something Jaylen Brown does better than most others.

Brown currently leads the NBA in defended field goal percentage, holding players he defends to 41.5% from the field. He accounts for a 5.1% decrease on average in his opponents shooting percentage and that's top four in the NBA and he's the only guard in the top five.

Brown consistently takes on the task of guarding the opponent's best player and has shown time and time again he's one of the best defenders in the NBA.

Gap Year? Absolutely Not

The chatter surrounding the Boston Celtics entering this season was that of a beaten team. It looked like Jayson Tatum would miss the entirety of the 2025/26 season. Al Horford departed for Golden State, while both Jrue Holiday and Krisptaps Porziņģis were traded.

Three of the five starters from last year were gone and the team's leading scorer recovering from an achilles tear. The outlook was bleak for a little while in Boston but Jaylen Brown and this Celtics' team had no time for that.

The Celtics sit 2nd in the Eastern Conference and have the 4th best record in the NBA. The team has the No.1 offensive rating the NBA, rank No.6 in defensive rating and have the 2nd best net rating.

Brown leads the Celtics and he's doing it with career high numbers. He's averaging 29.0 points per game this year, shooting 48.2% from the field and ranks 5th in the NBA in points per game. Brown's stuffing the stat with 7.1 rebounds per game and a career high 5.0 assists per game.

'Most Valuable'

The definition for this changes every year. We've seen this award go to the best player on the best team and we've also seen it go Russell Westbrook on a sixth place Thunder team. Shai's looking like the likely favorite because not only is his team the best, but his numbers match.

Jaylen Brown is the only All-Star the Celtics had this year. He's not the only MVP candidate in this situation, but both Shai & Jokić play alongside All-Stars and NBA Champions. Brown, Wembanyama and Cunningham all represent solo All-Stars on teams over-performing expectations. All three of these candidates would make for great stories and all three seem to be gaining media attention.

The price on Brown is better now, but the juice might not be worth the squeeze. I'm going down with the ship because I really believe, if Brown wasn't a Celtic; this is a team competing for the lottery. His efficiency scoring and two-way ability has been at the core of Boston's success and without it they'd be lost.

That, to me at least, is how you define 'Most Valuable'.

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Varun Sharma
Varun Sharma

You may know me as ‘VSaaauce’. I’ve been a die hard hoops fan my entire life. I’ve been betting on the NBA/NCAAB/NFL/MLB for six years now, each year gaining more and more knowledge about being a profitable handicapper. I’m eager to learn, and eager to pass on everything I’ve gained over the last few years. I started my Twitter page four years ago, and this community makes me so thankful I did. Outside of sports and handicapping, I enjoy traveling, hoopin, a strong espresso and I’m currently studying to obtain my MD. I’m all about the vibes, good vibes only. If that sounds like you, follow me on 'X' @VSaaauce.

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