USA vs Lithuania Prediction & Picks: Unbeatens Battle for Group J Glory

Eddie Griffin

Written by: Eddie Griffin

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USA vs Lithuania Prediction & Picks: Unbeatens Battle for Group J Glory cover


After three dominant wins at the 2023 FIBA World Cup, the USA ran into a serious challenge against Montenegro.

But instead of succumbing to the upset bug that bit several other teams Friday, the Americans stepped up and shut the door in crunch time.

Along with securing their spot in the quarterfinals, Friday’s win kept the USA perfect for today’s Group J finale with Lithuania (8:40 am ET, ESPN2), which will decide top spot in the group.

While Friday’s frenzy of upsets featured several impactful outcomes, one of the most impressive results was Lithuania’s second-half dismantling of Greece. Is an even bigger win on the horizon today?

USA vs Lithuania Odds

Odds are via Bovada.


  • USA -14 (-110)
  • Lithuania +14 (-110)


  • Over 177.5 (+100)
  • Under 177.5 (-120)


  • USA -950
  • Lithuania +650

Will Friday’s Close Contest Fire Up the USA?

Jonas Valanciunas dunk vs Greece | USA vs Lithuania odds prediction picks 2023 FIBA World Cup

Entering the matchup with Greece, Lithuania was favored by several points. So, their 92-67 win over Greece wasn’t an upset.

But the manner in which it played out was a major surprise, especially when a different outcome appeared to be a possibility at halftime.

At that juncture, Greece led 43-39 after outscoring Lithuania 23-19 in the second quarter. Over the final two quarters of the game, they managed just one more point than they scored in that quarter, as they were outscored 53-24.

In the second half, Lithuania went 18 of 26 (69.2%) overall from the field and made 12 of their 16 three-point attempts, all the while holding Greece to 25.8% (8 of 31) from the field and 23.1% (3 of 13) from three. In the third quarter alone.

Results for Lithuania at the 2023 FIBA World Cup

  • Friday, August 25: Lithuania 93-67 Egypt
  • Sunday, August 27: Lithuania 96-66 Mexico
  • Tuesday, August 29: Lithuania 91-71 Montenegro
  • Friday, September 1: Lithuania 92-67 Greece

It is highly unlikely that Lithuania will be able to shoot the lights out like that against the USA. Those numbers don’t occur very often against top-quality competition.

But will we see them push the Americans even closer than Montenegro did?

Over the years, there have been a number of classic, close contests between these two teams. There’s every chance that this game could be another one.

Entering the 2023 FIBA World Cup, expectations were tempered for Lithuania with regards to being a top contender for the title. In addition to the USA, the likes of France, Australia, Spain, and Canada all had shorter odds to win the tournament.

But while France and Australia are already out of the running and will be joined by the Spain-Canada loser, they have won each of their first four games in resounding fashion.

This is a game that the USA must take seriously. If they don’t, they will find themselves in a very perilous position.

Results for the USA at the 2023 FIBA World Cup

  • Saturday, August 26: USA 99-72 New Zealand
  • Monday, August 28: USA 109-81 Greece
  • Wednesday, August 30: USA 110-62 Jordan
  • Friday, September 1: USA 85-73 Montenegro

That said, Friday should serve as a wake-up call for the Americans, who trailed at halftime and led by only two points with a little over seven minutes left then held Montenegro to four points in four minutes.

Sometimes a close call is needed, like the USA’s five-point win over Lithuania in group play at the 2012 Olympics. That was their closest game of the entire tournament, and it no doubt served them well for their gold medal clash with Spain, a 107-100 win.

USA vs Lithuania Prediction and Picks

Prediction: USA to win

Picks: Anthony Edwards over 18.5 points (-115 at Bovada) & Jonas Valanciunas over 15.5 points (-115 at Bovada) + over 9.5 rebounds (-110 at Bovada)

I think we will see a much better 40 minutes from the USA than we saw against Montenegro, but there’s no way I’m touching the spread here.

Instead, I’m rolling with the props. After scoring 22 points against Jordan, Edwards led the way with 17 points against Montenegro. He will again be key to the USA’s efforts, and I think he will embrace that and improve upon Friday’s numbers.

Valanciunas put in another solid performance in the win over Greece, tallying 15 points, nine rebounds, three assists, and two blocks. For the tournament, he is averaging 14.0 PPG and 9.8 RPG. I look for the NBA veteran to have a big game against a group of players that he knows well, just as Nikola Vucevic (18 points, 16 rebounds) did on Friday.

Where to Bet on USA vs Lithuania and the 2023 FIBA World Cup

The USA vs Lithuania betting odds mentioned in this article came from Bovada, but they aren’t the only sports betting site out there offering 2023 FIBA World Cup odds.

Here are some of the reputable online sportsbooks that we recommend for betting on the FIBA World Cup and other basketball competitions and leagues like the NBA and WNBA:

In addition to odds for each game of the tournament, you can find FIBA World Cup futures odds at these books. We have reviewed each of the above books and highly recommend them all.

If you don’t have an account at any of those sites mentioned, check out our reviews to learn more about what they have to offer.

Eddie Griffin
Eddie Griffin

Eddie Griffin has been writing about and betting on sports for over a decade and has been with Betting News since 2021. For more of his thoughts on sports and sports betting, you can follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter.

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