Yankees vs. Blue Jays ALDS Game 1: Team Total Props | October 4, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Update: Tue Oct 07, 2025, 10:41 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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Yankees vs. Blue Jays: The postseason is here, and few matchups deliver more intrigue than Yankees versus Blue Jays in Game One of the ALDS. These two clubs know each other's strengths and weaknesses inside and out. Toronto may have claimed the AL East crown, but New York enters battle-tested after grinding through the Wild Card. The question looms large: will the Blue Jays' rest be an edge, or will the Yankees' rhythm from constant play prove too much? Either way, the spotlight is on Kevin Gausman, and I see an angle worth jumping on.
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Yankees vs. Blue Jays Game 1 Best Bets – October 4
Do the Yankees stand a chance against the Blue Jays on the road?
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Game one of the ALDS between the Yankees and Blue Jays brings another AL East showdown. Toronto had New York's number all season, which ultimately gave them the division crown through the tiebreaker. The Blue Jays have been resting and preparing for this series all week, while the Yankees were grinding against the Red Sox to earn their spot. The age-old question resurfaces: rest versus rust. Toronto held scrimmages, but nothing replicates live postseason intensity. This series has the makings of one of the best of the round, and I am hoping for every ounce of drama.
Yankees vs. Gausman
In this spot, I am fading Toronto starter Kevin Gausman and backing the Yankees first five team total over 1.5 at -125. Gausman has been shakier at home than on the road. In 16 starts at Rogers Centre, the 34-year-old right-hander owns a 3.86 ERA, giving up 5.4 hits and 2.5 runs per start, with opponents batting .236 against him.
Several Yankees have strong track records against Gausman. Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton both hit over .333 with 30-plus career at-bats against him. Trent Grisham and Paul Goldschmidt have also produced in these matchups. On top of that, left-handed bats like Ben Rice have been rolling, and this is a perfect spot for them. Gausman has struggled badly against lefties of late, with the last 30 he faced producing an 11.12 ERA, 4.46 xERA, 2.47 WHIP, and a 23% line-drive rate. Those hitters carried a .448 xBA, .527 xSLG, and .342 xWOBA during that stretch.
Right-handers are not far behind. While Gausman's surface numbers against his last 60 righties look respectable (0.63 ERA), the advanced metrics tell a different story. Those hitters own a .360 expected batting average and a .524 expected slugging percentage, with 60% hard contact, a 10% barrel rate, and a 27.5% line-drive rate.
Boom or Bust
This is a classic boom-or-bust spot, and I lean toward bust. The Yankees bring a top-five offense on the road over the last month, as well as a top-five ranking against right-handed pitching during that same stretch. With three postseason games already under their belts, they should be settled and ready to attack. Asking for two early runs feels like value.
Game One sets the tone, and this feels like a chance for the Yankees to strike early. Toronto may have the fresher arms, but Kevin Gausman's recent metrics leave plenty of cracks for a lineup this dangerous to exploit. New York has been one of the league's hottest road offenses, especially against right-handed pitching, and several key bats match up well against him. With postseason experience already in their pocket, the Yankees should not take long to get comfortable in Toronto. Two early runs is not asking much, and I see strong value in backing their first five team total.
Best Bet: Yankees First Five Team Total Over 1.5 Runs (-125) odds via BetOnline
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd and has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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