Yankees vs. Astros: First Five Prop Predictions | September 3, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Published: Wed Sep 03, 2025, 2:22 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
mlb
Yankees vs. Astros:
The New York Yankees are surging at the right time and look like a team ready to make a serious push for the AL East crown. Winners of eight of their last ten games, the Bronx Bombers enter tonight's matchup in Houston riding a wave of confidence and offensive firepower. With Toronto and Boston sitting just ahead of them in the standings, every game has added weight, and New York has shown no signs of slowing down. Tonight offers another chance to showcase their hot bats, and the numbers suggest it could be a profitable spot to back them.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today's slate, take a look at our MLB Picks Page or our MLB Odds Page, here.
Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @ColbyMBets to get my full card every day! Picks are always FREE.
Last Month: 63-88 (+7.24u)
Last Week: 8-12 (-0.6u)
Yankees vs. Astros Best Bets – September 3
Can Jazz take another Astro deep this evening?
Check out BetOnline's New No Strings Welcome Offer that gives new MLB players up to $250 in Free Bets and 100 Free Casino Spins with their first deposit. Find out more about this Promotion as well as lots of other Free Sportsbook Promos right here!
After an incredible performance last night from the Bronx Bombers, they are once again set up for success in game two against Houston. New York has won eight of its last ten games and is rolling. They are one of the hottest teams in baseball, with a clear goal in mind: the AL East crown. The Yankees sit two and a half games back of the Blue Jays, the same margin as the Red Sox. With another series win in sight before hosting Toronto at the end of the week, it will be exciting to see how this team positions itself to take over first place in the division. That is why we are backing the hot hand and taking the Yankees first five team total over 2.5, priced at a delectable $1.05.
New York ranks top five in nearly every major offensive category over the past two weeks, including wRC+, wOBA, ISO, OPS, walk rate, hard contact, and barrel rate. They have fully shaken off their mid-season slump. Against right-handed pitchers on the road over the last four weeks, the Yankees lead the league in ISO, walk rate, and hard-hit rate, while sitting second in wRC+, wOBA, and OPS.
Yankees vs. Alexander
Today's lineup features nine elite-rated hitters according to Batters-Box. Yes, nine. They also have one great-rated hitter, two above the league strikeout rate, and one above the ground ball rate. That lineup now faces Jason Alexander—not the Yankees' former assistant to the traveling secretary, but Houston's 32-year-old right hander. Alexander has struggled at home this season with a 5.40 ERA, allowing 5.1 hits and 2.6 runs per game, while opponents are hitting .307 against him. Over his last five home outings, he owns a 5.63 ERA, 4.66 xERA, and a 52 percent hard contact rate, while hitters have produced a .310 xBA, .475 xSLG, and .349 xwOBA.
This is the same pitcher who held New York to one hit across six innings on August 10. Is this the perfect revenge spot for one of baseball's hottest teams? It certainly feels like it. Even during his strong August, Alexander's underlying metrics suggested regression was coming. Over his last five starts, he carries a 4.13 xERA with nearly 50 percent hard contact allowed, along with a .264 xBA and .432 xSLG. He has given up plenty of hits lately, and his ability to limit the damage has been fortunate more than dominant. He looks due for a letdown, and I believe tonight could be the night. Confidence is high that the Yankees get their revenge against him.
Wrap Up
All signs point toward New York being in a prime position to cash this number early. The Yankees are firing on all cylinders at the plate, with nearly every hitter in the lineup producing quality at-bats and generating consistent hard contact. The advanced metrics back up what the eye test is showing: this is one of the most dangerous offenses in the game right now, and it has found its rhythm at the right time of year. Facing a pitcher in Jason Alexander who has been living on borrowed time, the Yankees should have every opportunity to jump on him quickly.
This is a revenge spot, a momentum spot, and most importantly, a value spot. New York has been punishing right-handed pitching on the road, and with their sights set on the AL East crown, there is no letup in focus. Taking the Yankees first five team total over 2.5 at this price feels like a gift, and I am confident they will make it count tonight in Houston.
Best Bet: Yankees First Five Team Total Over 2.5 Runs (-105) odds via BetOnline
Interested in More Content?
Get FREE Picks and Props Weekly
Sign up for
THE WEEKENDER NEWSLETTER
Follow me on X @ColbyMBets for all my picks and sports opinions. Follow Betting News on 'X' and Twitch and catch us on stream! Betting News is also on TikTok! Follow us for more picks and news every day!
In need of a sportsbook? Check out one of our favorites below among our best online sportsbooks and sign-up for a bonus!
Check Out All of Our Betting Resources at Betting News
- Picks & Odds for the NFL
- NFL Betting Guide for Beginners
- Pick & Odds for NCAAF
- NCAAF Betting Guide for Beginners
- Picks & Odds in the MLB
- MLB Betting Guide for Beginners
- Picks & Odds in the NBA
- NBA Betting Guide for Beginners
- Picks & Odds in the NHL
- NHL Betting Guide for Beginners
More Betting Stories
Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd and has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Betting News makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.
More MLB News
