Yankees vs. Blue Jays: Guerrero Jr. vs. Warren | July 2, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Update: Wed Jul 02, 2025, 2:16 pm ET
Read Time: 3 minutes
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Yankees vs. Blue Jays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went hitless yesterday, but the data suggests a strong bounce-back spot tonight. A favorable matchup and elite metrics make this one of the best value props on the board. The number is simply too good to ignore.
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Last Month: 62-151 (-26.03u)
Last Week: 15-26 (+1.61u)
Yankees vs. Blue Jays Best Bets – July 2
After going 0-5 on Canada Day, will Vladimir Guerrero Jr. go off?
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After an 0-5 day at the dish, today has Vlad Day written all over it. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s bases prop is set at +145, which is an insane price for how much I love this matchup.
Vlad Jr. Day
The Blue Jays star holds a great rating on Batters-Box today. In 107 such spots, Guerrero Jr. records a hit nearly 70% of the time, two hits 34% of the time, and goes over this total bases prop 44% of the time. If you want some cushion, the over on his 1.5 hits, runs, and RBI at -115 is more than reasonable. He clears that number 56% of the time in great spots, and the price is more than fair.
The Yankees send rookie Will Warren to the mound, who owns a 4.37 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Over his last 103 innings, he has allowed 37% hard contact. On the road, he sports a 5.54 ERA and a .265 opponent batting average. A total of 42% of his pitch mix is below league average. The other 58% is his fastball and sinker—pitches Guerrero Jr. feasts on. Per Baseball Savant, Guerrero Jr. is the No. 1 Blue Jays hitter against those offerings, batting over .325, with an OPS above .956, and wRC+ north of 191.
This price feels offensive for a hitter batting over .300 with a 1.027 OPS over the last 15 days. Odds of +145 are hard to pass up, and the data backs him to bounce back in a big way tonight.
Best Bet: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (+145) odds via BetOnline
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd and has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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