Yankees vs. Blue Jays: Mispriced Player Props | July 1, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Update: Tue Jul 01, 2025, 5:44 pm ET
Read Time: 3 minutes
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Yankees vs. Blue Jays: Aaron Judge has been crushing on the road all season and draws a dream matchup today. The numbers scream value. When the price and profile align like this, you do not hesitate.
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Last Month: 62-153 (-27.15u)
Last Week: 17-28 (+0.41u)
Yankees vs. Blue Jays Best Bets – July 1
Can Aaron Judge bounce back after a hitless Monday night?
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Sometimes, finding a mispriced prop is the biggest win of the day. Be comfortable with losing and knowing you were on the right side, regardless of the result. Today, we are riding with Aaron Judge and his total bases prop set at even money.
The captain enters today with the third-highest rating on the Batters-Box hitter board. When Judge is elite on the road, he records at least one hit 74% of the time, two hits 35%, goes over this prop 52%, and hits a home run 31% of the time. That is across 109 elite-rated road games.
He faces Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman, who he has owned throughout his career—14 for 37 with five home runs and two doubles, good for a .829 SLG and 1.310 OPS. Gausman has the fifth-worst pitcher rating on the day, with poor marks in ISO, hard contact, and ground ball percentage. Over the last three years, he has allowed 43% hard contact.
At home this season, the 34-year-old right-hander owns a 4.54 ERA and .248 opponent batting average. Right-handed hitters are batting .297 against him, with a .336 wOBA and .453 slugging percentage. Gausman throws fastballs 54% of the time—Judge this season owns a +4.4 run value per 100 fastballs, with a .386 batting average, .964 SLG, and a 66% hard-hit rate.
I consider it an automatic play when the matchup is this good and the price is even better.
Best Bet: Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100) odds via BetOnline
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd and has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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