White Sox vs. Yankees: First Five Team Totals | September 23, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Update: Tue Sep 23, 2025, 11:41 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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White Sox vs. Yankees:The final week of the regular season has arrived, and the New York Yankees are walking a razor's edge. Two games back of the Toronto Blue Jays with just six left to play, every at-bat, every inning, every pitch matters. The Bronx Bombers have the talent, the metrics, and the matchups to make one last furious push at the division crown. But can they actually pull it off, or will the Blue Jays slam the door shut?
This week sets up to be pure chaos, and tonight's matchup could be the first domino in a dramatic sprint to the finish line. With both lineups peaking, rotations under the microscope, and every mistake magnified, the next six games will decide everything.
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White Sox vs. Yankees Best Bets – September 23
Can the real AL MVP leave yard tonight?
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It is now or never for the New York Yankees to lock in and go all out in these final six games of the season. Two series remain, and they sit two games back of the Toronto Blue Jays for first place in the AL East. The Yankees are clawing at every opportunity to sneak in and steal the division crown.
They hold the third-easiest remaining schedule in baseball, with the White Sox and Orioles on deck. The Blue Jays, meanwhile, have the 12th-easiest, finishing against the Red Sox and Rays. Both teams close the year with back-to-back home series, which sets the stage for a thrilling finish.
I fully expect the Yankees to come out swinging against Shane Smith and the White Sox tonight. That is why I am backing their first five team total over 2.5 at -125.
Yankees Trends
Over the last two weeks, the Bronx Bombers have ranked top ten in nearly every key offensive metric: wRC+, wOBA, OPS, ISO, walk rate, line drive percentage, and hard-hit rate. They also lead the league in barrel rate during that stretch.
According to Batters-Box, the Yankees have the top-rated offense today, with six hitters graded as elite, two as great, and none falling into heavy ground-ball tendencies.
Smith vs. Yankees
Smith has faced this Yankees lineup before, on August 30, when he went 6.1 innings and allowed two runs. Tonight, the matchup looks much tougher. He holds poor ratings across ISO, wOBA, hard contact, and ground-ball percentage, while giving up nearly 42% hard contact on the year.
On the road, Smith has struggled all season, averaging over four hits and nearly three runs per outing. In his last five road starts, he owns a 6.20 ERA, 4.74 xERA, 2.19 HR/9, and a 47.8% hard-hit rate. Opponents in that span are producing a .248 xBA, .431 xSLG, and .352 xwOBA. Four of those five opponents cleared this same team total prop.
Seven of New York's top nine rated bats tonight will step in from the left side, and that is bad news for Shane Smith. Left-handed hitters have been giving him fits lately. Over his last 60 faced, they have produced a .349 xBA, .711 xSLG, and .353 xwOBA. Even more concerning, they are making hard contact 62% of the time with a 13% barrel rate during that stretch.
This is a spot the Yankees cannot afford to let slip. Two series, two opponents with nothing to lose, and everything on the line for New York. We are about to find out how badly the Bombers want to rip the AL East away from the Blue Jays.
Best Bet: Yankees First Five Team Total Over 2.5 Runs (-125) odds via BetOnline
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd and has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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