Tonight we get to back my favorite name in all of baseball, Rays first baseman Jonathan Aranda. That is just a great last name, but maybe that is just me. Whatever. I digress.
We are all over his bases prop this evening down in Tampa Bay, where the Rays' most consistent hitter finds himself with an elite rating on Batters-Box's current season board. When elite this year, he has recorded a hit 70% of the time, 2+ hits 40%, and gone over this prop 45% of the time. He also goes over 2+ hits/runs/RBI 55% of the time, so if you are willing to pay the $1.25 juice, go for it. I am not in the mood to pay that kind of juice tonight—especially with how confident I am that Aranda snaps his second-half hitless streak with a big one against White Sox starter Sean Burke.
Burke vs. Aranda
The 27-year-old Ray has been crushing right-handed pitching at home all season, batting .381 with a .987 OPS and 176 wRC+. Burke holds the third-worst pitcher rating on the day, with below-average marks in ISO, hard contact rate, strikeout rate, and ground ball percentage. This season alone, he is giving up 40% hard contact to opposing hitters—the highest rate among all starters going tonight.
Seventy-eight percent of Burke's arsenal grades below league average, per FanGraphs. The only pitch above league average is his curveball, and Aranda is batting .316 against that pitch this season, with a .789 OPS and 128 wRC+.
With how well Aranda has hit at home, and coming off back-to-back hitless games, I think he is due for a strong bounce back against a shaky arm.
Best Bet: Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120) odds via BetOnline
