Back to my bread and butter—first five team total props. We are backing the hometown team in Seattle against the cooling White Sox.
Seattle has quietly had one of the hottest offenses in all of baseball over the last two weeks. They rank first in wRC+, wOBA, and OPS over that span, per Handigraphs. They also sit third in ISO.
Cannon vs. Seattle
Today, according to Batters-Box, the Mariners lineup features six elite rated hitters, one above the league strikeout rate and four above the ground ball rate. They take on White Sox starter Jonathan Cannon, who is the worst rated pitcher in Batters-Box's current season ratings. He sports poor marks in matchup wOBA, ISO, hard contact, and strikeout percentage. Opponents are making 40% hard contact against him this season.
In his last five road starts, the right-hander holds a 5.27 ERA, 5.13 xERA, and a 48% hard hit rate. During that stretch, opponents have a .302 xBA, .513 xSLG, and .365 xwOBA.
Four of Seattle's six elite rated bats will hit from the left side tonight. Cannon has been torched by lefties recently. Over his last 60 plate appearances against left-handed hitters, he owns a 6.94 ERA, 8.46 xERA, and 2.31 HR/9. Left-handed bats have a .465 xBA, .781 xSLG, and .450 xwOBA.
Side Note: Yes, I am on the Cal Raleigh home run this evening. Do not waste your money on any other prop, unless it is just his hit. Raleigh will either single or go deep tonight. I lean with the home run at +220.
For one of the hottest offenses in baseball to clear 2.5 against a struggling arm, I believe paying the $1.25 is worth the squeeze.
