White Sox vs. Dodgers: Shohei Ohtani Props with Value | July 3, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Update: Thu Jul 03, 2025, 3:06 pm ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
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White Sox vs. Dodgers: Shohei Ohtani has another elite matchup on deck, but that does not mean his total bases prop is the best play. When the number is 2.5, you need to be sharp about how to attack it. There is a smarter way to find value.
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Last Month: 62-156 (-28.88u)
Last Week: 14-27 (-2.08u)
White Sox vs. Dodgers Best Bets – July 3
Will there be some Shohei Ohtani magic this evening in LA?
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Skip paying the over 2.5 bases on Shohei Ohtani and take his double and home run props for better value. But why? Simple. First, why pay for 2.5 bases when he could go 1-for-4 with a double and you get hooked? I can get nearly 4/1 on the double alone. Second, I can live with Ohtani ending the day with three singles or a triple.
People will say, "Well, if he hits a home run, the bases cash." Then bet the home run straight at +150 if you believe he is going yard. Would I be saying all of this if the bases prop was set at 1.5? No—unless it was priced at -140 or higher. Know when it is the right time to take bases and when it is not.
This is a great matchup today for the Dodgers slugger, who holds a rating above 0.60 on Batters-Box. When he reaches that level, his trends are nearly automatic.
Ohtani Elite Rating Trends
In 49 games with a 0.60+ rating, Ohtani has recorded:
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1+ Hit: 90%
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2+ Hits: 41%
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2+ Bases: 69%
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3+ Bases: 53%
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3+ HRR: 61%
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Double: 20%
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Home Run: 34%
If you are considering any of those props, that is the data to lean on.
The White Sox are rolling out Aaron Civale, who has been a disaster this season. He owns a 5.92 ERA and is allowing a .303 opponent batting average on the road. Left-handed hitters are crushing him—batting .325 with a .625 slugging and a .438 wOBA away from home.
Civale rates poorly across the board today: wOBA, ISO, hard contact, and ground ball percentage. He is allowing 45% hard contact to opposing hitters. Every pitch in Civale's arsenal has been getting destroyed by Ohtani this season. Not one of them grades above a full number.
Best Bet: Shohei Ohtani Double (+390) | Home Run (+150) odds via BetOnline
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd and has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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