Twins vs. Padres (July 31): Will we have a high-scoring finale in San Diego?
After splitting the first two games of their series, the Minnesota Twins and San Diego Padres have a rubber game to look forward to this afternoon at Petco Park.
In the series opener on Friday, the Padres hit five home runs on the way to a 10-1 win. Yesterday, the Twins evened up the series with a 7-4 win, with eight of the game’s 11 runs coming in the final two innings thanks to a five-run eighth for Minnesota and a three-run ninth for San Diego.
In today’s series finale, both starting pitchers enter with a fairly high ERA for the month and for the season. So, should we expect a third straight over between these two playoff hopefuls?
Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego Padres Matchup Information and Betting Odds
- Matchup: Minnesota Twins (53-47, 26-25 away, 1st in the AL Central) vs. San Diego Padres (56-46, 26-22 home, 2nd in the NL West)
- Venue & Location: Petco Park (San Diego, California)
- Date: Sunday, July 31, 2022
- Game Time: 4:10 p.m. Eastern Time (1:10 p.m. local time)
- Twins vs. Padres TV Info: MLB Network
Twins vs. Padres Pitching Matchup
- Minnesota Twins: Dylan Bundy (2022: 17 starts, 6-4, 5.02 ERA)
- San Diego Padres: Sean Manaea (2022: 18 starts, 5-5, 4.33 ERA)
Twins vs. Padres Odds
- Minnesota Twins +124
- San Diego Padres -146
- Over 8.5 (-112)
- Under 8.5 (-108)
- Minnesota Twins +1.5 (-160)
- San Diego Padres -1.5 (+132)
Bundy, Manaea Both Struggling for Success
Both Minnesota and San Diego will feel confident about their chances of putting runs on the board today, and for good reason.
Bundy has allowed four or more runs six times in 11 road starts this season and has a 6.41 ERA on the road. In his most recent start, he allowed five runs, seven hits, and two walks in four innings in a loss at Milwaukee on Tuesday.
Home and Away Splits for Dylan Bundy
- Home (six starts): 3-1, 2.61 ERA, 31 IP, 24 H, 9 R (9 ER), 3 HR, 6 BB, 18 K, .209 OBA
- Away (11 starts): 3-3, 6.41 ERA, 53.1 IP, 68 H, 40 R (38 ER), 10 HR, 13 BB, 47 K, .309 OBA
In Bundy’s 17 starts this season, there have been nine or more combined runs 12 times, including nine times in his last 10 starts and nine times in his 11 road starts.
The numbers also line up well for the Twins to be able to have some success against Manaea.
The 30-year-old opened the season by allowing just three runs in 18 innings in his first three starts. But since then, he has allowed three or more runs 11 times in 15 starts, including four of his last five starts.
In his most recent start, Manaea gave up nine runs (only four earned) and eight hits in 3.1 innings in a 12-4 loss at Detroit on Monday.
Home and Away Splits for Sean Manaea
- Home (eight starts): 3-3, 4.53 ERA, 45.2 IP, 45 H, 25 R (23 ER), 8 HR, 21 BB, 39 K, .253 OBA
- Away (10 starts): 2-2, 4.17 ERA, 58.1 IP, 49 H, 32 R (27 ER), 8 HR, 18 BB, 65 K, .227 OBA
In Manaea’s 18 starts this season, nine or more combined runs have been scored 11 times. It has happened only three times in his home starts, but that shouldn’t put you off of backing the over given the circumstances.
Additionally, Manaea’s numbers during the day make for some pretty rough reading. In four daytime starts, he is 0-3 with a 6.53 ERA and a .289 OBA, and he has allowed 24 hits, 16 runs (15 earned), and 11 walks in just 20.2 innings.
Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego Padres Prediction and Picks
Twins vs. Padres Prediction: Padres to win
I do like San Diego to pick up the series win at home–they are 27-18 after a loss, while Minnesota is just 24-28 after a win–but that is not where the best betting value lies with this matchup.
Look for the Padres to win it with a productive day at the plate and for the Twins to do their part to help the over as well. Both pitchers are certainly better than their numbers, but those numbers are why the over is the play here.
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Eddie Griffin has been writing about and Betting on sports for over a decade. For more of his thoughts on sports and sports betting, you can follow him on Twitter.